For the last year, most Democrats approached 2016 with an air of smug confidence. Their assumption was that while the scrum of Republican presidential candidates would tear each other to pieces as they did in 2012, Hillary Clinton’s coronation as their nominee would enable their party to sit back and calmly await the GOP winner. That would allow the Clinton campaign machine to act as if she was an incumbent thereby saving money and allowing her to stay above the fray and continue freezing out the press. That scenario has been looking shaky as, burdened by scandal, plunging favorability and trust numbers in the polls as well as an unexpectedly vigorous challenge on the left from Senator Bernie Sanders, Clinton has begun looking very beatable lately. But her problems may have only just begun. If reports about Vice President Joe Biden seriously considering a presidential run are true, the Hillary coronation will become the fight of her life.
This week the stories about Biden associates meeting with contributors fed the rumors about the vice president considering a third try for the presidency. But today’s column in the New York Times from Maureen Dowd in which she claims that the veep’s late son Beau urging his father to run for the presidency from his deathbed not only gives the Biden boomlet urgency, it also creates a tragic back story that may seize the imagination of the public.
Though nothing could be more natural than an incumbent vice president looking to succeed his boss, the strength of the Clinton juggernaut seemed to shelve that notion. President Obama also appeared to be lending his blessing to Clinton’s candidacy. But if Biden had any lingering ideas about one last try for the Oval Office, most observers thought the tragic death of his son earlier this year ended that possibility. But, if Dowd is to be believed, the Beau factor may be what is driving Biden to run.
Dowd may be the queen of liberal snark and is rightly despised by conservatives. But it should be remembered that she won her Pulitzer with columns that directed her trademark snark at the Clintons back during l’affaire Lewinsky. Her contempt for the former First Family is barely disguised. She may also relish assuming the role, as Howard Fineman put it in the Huffington Post, of the “living bard” of “the last of the old breed” of Irish politicians that gave us the Kennedys.
Of course, the mention of the Kennedys brings to mind Bobby Kennedy’s run for the presidency in 1968. Kennedy didn’t dare challenge President Lyndon Johnson until Eugene McCarthy’s left-wing insurgency showed that LBJ was mortal. Sanders is currently playing the role of McCarthy to Clinton’s Johnson. While an elderly bloviator like Biden is ill-suited to channel the charismatic Kennedy, it may be that his ambition will fill in the gap.
Those who think Biden needs much persuading to get him to throw his hat in the ring don’t know much about the vice president. On “Meet the Press” today, Chuck Todd quoted people close to the vice president as saying this is the “first time he felt prepared to be president because of his experience at the center of power during the last six and a half years. But though many dismiss him as a goofy, loquacious gaffe machine, he has always thought of himself as presidential material. Indeed, while many dismissed his 2008 run as a “last hurrah” for his career, I saw it as the longtime Delaware senator giving the American people one last chance to do the right thing and make him president.
There are still some formidable obstacles to a successful Biden campaign. He would be starting very late in the cycle with most of the big-money Democratic donors already committed to Clinton. Moreover, even a happy warrior like Biden who loves the rough and tumble of politics has to regard a tussle with the Clinton attack machine with some reservations.
But though most Democrats have been pooh-poohing the Hillary’s email and latest Clinton Cash scandals as insignificant, they understand that she is already damaged. They’ve also noticed that her inauthentic and phony campaign style is an ominous sign of weakness that has fed her poor poll numbers. They know she is vulnerable to criticisms from the left that she is unwilling to take stands on their core issues like the Keystone XL pipeline controversy. They may think they can beat anyone that emerges from the Republicans, a belief that has gotten much stronger as Donald Trump has risen to the top of the heap, but they know Hillary isn’t the unbeatable candidate they hoped for.
But if anything can convince Democrats to pass up on the opportunity to try to elect our first female president, the Beau Biden story might just do it. The phrase “What would Beau do?” has the potential to become a powerful theme that makes Biden, who is already seen with great sympathy by liberals, an attractive candidate who could deliver the kind of coup de grâce to Clinton that Sanders won’t manage. The Beau Biden tale means the Democratic race may be about to get very interesting. That’s the worst news Hillary Clinton could get.
