Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair might have come up with the perfect compromise to the standoff over the Palestinians’ attempt to get the United Nations to recognize a unilateral declaration of independence. In his capacity as the Diplomatic Quartet’s envoy to the Middle East, Blair has proposed the Palestinian Authority give their proposed resolution to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. Moon would then sit on it until the end of the General Assembly session on Dec. 28, when he would present it to the GA if peace negotiations hadn’t begun. This would allow the PA to put off the impending flare-up of violence in the West Bank and dampen the expectations of their people while presumably giving the United States and the Quartet time to jumpstart a new round of talks between the PA and Israel. It would also get the Obama administration off the hook in terms of having to veto the resolution in the Security Council.
But there are two big problems with this idea.
One is that Mahmoud Abbas and the PA may have already gone too far to turn back now. Abbas knows his UN gambit is likely to hurt the PA more than Israel, because Palestinians will soon realize they are no closer to independence (outside of Gaza, that is where an independent, though terrorist-run Palestinian state currently exists), and the very real possibility of violence will strengthen Hamas. But the worldwide diplomatic offensive he has commenced against Israel as well as the United States may have already generated too much heat for him to walk it back now.
The second is that Blair’s proposal presumes what the Palestinians want is a resumption of talks, albeit with foreign pressure bearing down on Israel to agree to the 1967 lines as well as concessions on Jerusalem, refugees and no recognition of it as the Jewish state.
But Abbas has gone to the UN precisely because he seeks to evade such negotiations even if they are conducted, as President Obama signaled this past May, with the playing field tilted toward the Palestinians.
Abbas rejected an Israeli offer of a Palestinian state in most of the West Bank, Gaza and part of Jerusalem in 2008 just as his predecessor Yasir Arafat did in 2000 and 2001. The dynamic of Palestinian politics and culture is such that any recognition of Israel, no matter where its borders are drawn, are anathema to them and likely to terminate the career–if not the life–of any PA leader who signed on to it.
While the PA might wish the trap they have set for themselves would disappear, it’s not likely Blair’s plan can do the trick. Were Abbas to back down now, it might be a political disaster for him and boost Hamas anyway. And if this proposal meant he would be forced into talks with Netanyahu (who has repeatedly declared his willingness to negotiate without preconditions), that might be just as bad for him, despite all the promises Washington and the Europeans are making to Abbas about supporting his positions in the talks.
It could be the PA now has no choice but to play the cards they have dealt themselves.