So far, it hasn’t exactly worked out to be the year of the governor for Republicans. On Tuesday, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal joined Scott Walker and Rick Perry on the scrap heap of the 2016 presidential race. Though he never stopped churning out position papers and other statements designed to gain attention, Jindal was also extremely aggressive against rivals like Donald Trump and Chris Christie (whom he attacked doggedly in the last second-tier GOP debate). But nothing worked and, with little money and registering close to zero support in national polls, Jindal finally did the sensible thing and dropped out. Trump, who was smart enough not to pay much attention to Jindal while he was running noted that Jindal had been “nasty” to him but the frontrunner had the grace to give him credit for trying and that he was a “good man.” Trump also greeted the move with approval, saying, “You know, I’m not unhappy to see one by one they go.” But he should be unhappy.

Jindal’s leaving the race won’t affect the standings for the others but his departure will begin the deathwatch for the several other candidates also registering in the low single digits. As with Jindal, the decisions that will be made by Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum will be meaningless since they are attracting little support. More interesting will be the choices made by members of the next tier of GOP candidates who are have little chance to win but are registering enough support and have enough money to probably stay in until Iowa and New Hampshire vote in early February. This group, consisting at the moment of Rand Paul, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Chris Christie, still harbor the hope that they can score an upset of some sort in either state in order to jump start campaigns that don’t look to have much upside at the moment.

The rest of the large field consists of those who can make an argument that they have a shot at the nomination. Jeb Bush has the most tenuous hold on membership in that group since any further decline in his standing in the polls will put him on the list of those who are only lingering on the margins hoping for lightening to strike rather than having a realistic chance. That leaves Trump, Ben Carson, and, behind that pair, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, the pair that GOP insiders believe will be the finalists if the outsiders at the top ever collapse.

Whatever happens to Carson as his campaign weathers a rocky period, Trump is not going to fade. He’s shown his mettle as a tough campaigner and fighter and his hold on 20 to 25 percent of the Republican electorate seems steady. With foreign policy and terrorism at the top of the news, it looks as if 2016 is shaping up to be an election fought on an issue. Trump is weak there but his ability to talk tough and to exploit fears about immigration — both realistic such as those about Syria and imaginary such as the hordes from Mexico — ensures that he will be a factor in the race to the bitter end, win or lose.

But Trump shouldn’t be encouraging anyone to get out of the race.

Trump’s fans are still having a lot of fun pointing out how all the establishment Republicans and pundits (including this one) were wrong back during the summer when we all reassured each other that his surge in the polls couldn’t last. They have a right to do so and those of us who made those incorrect predictions aren’t done eating crow about it. But while Trump appears to have a solid grip on that share of the GOP electorate, he has shown no ability to break out beyond that in national polls. Moreover, his negatives remain so high that he doesn’t appear to be a likely second choice for very many of those expressing support for the other candidates, including those who may not be around for the entire race.

Put simply, as long as the field is large and the various mainstream moderate conservatives and those further to the right are competing with each other, Trump stands an excellent chance of coming in first in some early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. That will be a huge boost for his campaign and likely winnow out the field even more. In states that allocate delegates on a winner-take-all basis, such as Florida, that will give him a huge advantage toward getting the nomination.

But the smaller the field, the less likely it will be that he can win with small pluralities. As the race narrows down to four, three, and maybe just two candidates by the spring, Trump will be challenged to get beyond his one-quarter share of Republican voters. His chances of meeting that challenge shouldn’t be dismissed. But the longer he can enjoy the competition among his rivals, the better his chances will be.

Over the course of the next several weeks, it’s likely that the race will sort itself out with a genuine first tier separating itself from the also-rans. Unless something unforeseen happens (and it generally does even in less interesting election years than this one), Trump will still be leading by the time the voting starts. But if he finds himself facing off against only a few strong competitors early on, his chances suddenly don’t look so good. So rather than cheering the departure of Jindal, it ought to inspire to make sure that all of the GOP candidates had enough money to keep campaigning for as long as possible. Given the egos of the candidates, it doesn’t appear as if they can get together and agree on a single or even two mainstream alternatives to Trump. But they need to think about the alternative. The longer they all stay in vainly hoping for Trump to fade, the more likely he will be the nominee. The moment the Donald must break out from his current base of support may be the time when the Trumpsters stop crowing and the pundits will finally be proved right about him.