America was formally introduced to Michele Bachmann last night. The poised and articulate woman on the stage in New Hampshire was nothing like the caricature of a Tea Party bomb thrower the mainstream media led the country to expect. Critics will attempt to downplay Bachmann’s strong showing as nothing more than a case of exceeding low expectations. But if that is what her rivals for the nomination are thinking today, they are making a mistake. In a field of largely bland candidates, she stands out as a person with energy and strong principles.
Heretofore, Bachmann has been viewed as a Sarah Palin clone or, at best, a rerun of Mike Huckabee and his surprisingly strong primary run in 2008. Either way, she was seen as a candidate with no real path to the nomination, let alone a chance of victory in November 2012. But the idea she is only competing for the title of best second -tier candidate underestimates both the candidate and the impact of the populist Tea Party movement that adores her.
After two straight poor debate performances by Tim Pawlenty, the image of him ducking a chance to take on Mitt Romney to his face on “Obamneycare” will linger. Though Pawlenty has many virtues, gutlessness is not a character trait Americans want in their president. Which means the idea Bachmann was a possible spoiler for Pawlenty in Iowa may have it backwards. Going forward, perhaps we ought to think of her, not Pawlenty, as the standard bearer for the social conservative wing of the party.
Today, many are envisioning the two winners of the debate — Romney and Bachmann — as the most likely to emerge from the early primaries as the main GOP contenders. That may be subject to revision in the unlikely event of another major candidate such as Paul Ryan jumping in, but it is a reasonable scenario. But if it does come down to just the two of them, the assumption that Romney is the certain nominee may be a misperception of the political realities of 2012.
Though no one laid a glove on Romney last night, the notion that most Republicans are willing to forgo running against Obamacare next year still strikes me as unlikely. And though Bachmann may be following the Huckabee blueprint in Iowa, she has a good deal more to offer to voters in other states than the cornpone style of the former Arkansas governor. She may also turn out to be the leading recipient of small donations in the coming months. This could give her enough money to go toe-to-toe with Romney and his massive warchest.
The conventional wisdom is if Republicans want to win, they won’t nominate Bachmann, and Romney would deserve to be favored in a head-to-head matchup on Super Tuesday and the later primaries. But if the economy does not substantially improve in the next seven to nine months, GOP activists may start to think any presentable Republican will be able to beat President Obama. Moreover, anyone assuming Bachmann’s Tea Party energy would not be a match for Romney’s establishment charm may be thinking of the Republican Party of an earlier era, not the one that won the 2010 midterms.
