This is a big week in Iowa as the candidates prepare for a televised debate in Ames on Thursday followed by the straw poll on Saturday. Although frontrunner Mitt Romney won’t compete in the poll, Iowa will still be the center of attention. Those who are in the mix will be seeking to, as in Michele Bachmann’s case, reinforce her first tier status or, as is the case with Tim Pawlenty, fight for survival. As to whether the straw poll deserves this much coverage, that’s a matter of opinion.

It is generally understood the poll doesn’t tell us much about who will win the Iowa caucuses this winter let alone the Republican presidential nomination. The Ames event will be a measure more of the candidates’ organizations than their ability to appeal to voters. In truth, the main reason why we pay so much attention to it is because a digital 24/7 news media desperate for material needs this story. But that doesn’t mean what will unfold in the next few days has no meaning. The debate on Thursday will be our first chance since June in New Hampshire to hear the candidates together. And it is precisely because there is no other even marginally objective measure of the candidates’ strength that Ames has taken on such significance. In the long slog to the first caucus, the straw poll is a benchmark by which we can assess how each of them is doing.

So, in spite of the fact the poll is actually meaningless, this week will produce some winners and some losers.

The biggest potential loser is Tim Pawlenty. Though his campaign may deny it, Pawlenty’s candidacy is on life support. After a summer during which he fell from the first tier to the second tier of candidates, Ames may be his last chance to reverse his slide. Because his map to the nomination requires him to win in Iowa, a dismal showing in the straw poll will pretty much kill his hopes and could conceivably lead to his withdrawal.

At the other end of the spectrum, Michele Bachmann enters as the frontrunner in the straw poll as well as leads in the latest Rasmussen poll of likely Republican caucus goers in the state. That means anything less than a victory will be viewed as something of a momentum stopper. That explains why her people are doing their best to lower expectations even as she stumps the state. But with Texas Governor Rick Perry still expected to enter the race, it is vital Bachmann do everything she can to establish herself as the leading candidate for the same conservative Christian and Tea Party factions that Perry needs to be a viable challenger to Romney. Anything that happens in the next few days that can be interpreted as a sign of Bachmann faltering will make it all the easier for Perry should he decide to finally get off the fence and run–as most expect him to do.

Though Ames is something of a manufactured story, at least this year there is more to it than just a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP and more stories for the media. A week from today, the prospects of Bachmann, Pawlenty and Perry may have been materially altered by what happens in the next few days.