There will be plenty at stake tonight at the Ames Debate that will be broadcast on Fox News at 9 pm. Mitt Romney will try to capitalize on the economic crisis by sounding like an experienced business executive and looking presidential. Michele Bachmann will be looking to build her strength in a state where she has been surging in the last two months. Tim Pawlenty will be hoping to save his candidacy by striking a different and hopefully more aggressive tone than his passive performance in New Hampshire back in June. Ron Paul will be playing to his usual enthusiastic pack of libertarians. And the others will be looking to take pot shots at the frontrunners in order to get noticed.
But the biggest question looming over this debate will be about the man who isn’t there: Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is set to announce his presidential candidacy on Saturday in order to overshadow the results of the Iowa straw poll held that day.
The Iowa debate will be the last gathering of the candidates before Perry becomes what will probably be the last major player to enter the GOP presidential field. That means it will be even more important for candidates who see him as direct competition for the affections of conservatives — namely, Michele Bachmann — to impress voters.
It will be interesting to see whether some of the entrants take shots at Perry on issues where they think he might be vulnerable. Rick Santorum for one will almost certainly mention Perry’s somewhat equivocal reaction to the New York legislature’s approval of gay marriage. But since Perry is popular among evangelicals and other social conservatives, this minor brouhaha is more about Santorum’s forlorn hopes than anything else.
Though Romney remains the national frontrunner with the most money and the best standing in the polls, it is probably Bachmann who will be the debater with the bull’s-eye on her back. If Bachmann is again perceived as the winner in the debate as she was in New Hampshire and then goes on to take the straw poll, that could wipe out the struggling Pawlenty and put a dent in the ability of marginal figures such as Santorum or Herman Cain to continue. So expect them all to be looking for openings to denigrate her lack of experience. But the problem for them is Bachmann is obviously the better performer, and if that shines through as clearly as it did in New Hampshire in June, they will regret tangling with her.
As for Romney, he escaped the last debate without being seriously challenged on his own shaky record on health care, taxes or any of his other flip-flops on the issues. Look for Pawlenty or some of the other lesser candidates to try and muss up Romney’s perfectly coiffed hair this time around.
But the main story here is this will be the last dance without Perry and an opportunity for Bachmann to shore up her support among social and religious conservatives as well as Tea Partiers, the sectors of the party Perry will be looking to steal from her after he jumps in.
