The conventional wisdom about the formation of Israel’s new government is that it can’t possibly survive. Due to former foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman’s decision earlier this week to refuse to re-join Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet, what was expected to be a solid 67-vote majority for the next government was reduced to a slender 61-vote total in the 120-member Knesset. After last minute hardball negotiations with the Jewish Home Party, Netanyahu scraped in just before the deadline for the end of the negotiations with a coalition that is likely to be as fragile as it may be fractious. But Netanyahu’s legion of critics in both the U.S. and Israel shouldn’t get too excited. Though the smart money is betting that this coalition won’t last out the year, no one should assume that anyone other than him would be running Israel for the foreseeable future.

The responsibility for this state of affairs is being widely blamed on Netanyahu’s arrogance and bad judgment. There is some truth to this since the prime minister was foolish to think he would make things much better when he decided to go to new elections only two years after winning a second consecutive (and third overall) term in 2013.

The coalition he had forged in 2013 with a combination of right wing and centrist parties was at cross-purposes with itself. In Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid and Hatnua’s Tzipi Livni he hadn’t so much formed a Cabinet of rivals as a dysfunctional therapy group. But the assumption that he could easily assemble a new government from Likud’s traditional right wing and religious party partners was a trifle over-optimistic. Indeed, in the last days of the campaign, it seemed as if he was doomed to defeat. But a last day surge back in his direction enabled Netanyahu to score a decisive victory with Likud winning the most seats of any party in the last decade. That set up what looked to be a set of difficult negotiations with Likud breakaway Moshe Kahlon and his Kulanu party as well as the right-wing partners in his last government, Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu and Naphtali Bennett’s Jewish Home.

The assumption was that eventually these parties and the religious factions would fall in line and sign up for the next government. Some thought if that didn’t work out, Netanyahu would be able to bring in Yitzhak Herzog and his Labor-led Zionist Union Party to make a unity government that embraced rightist, centrist and left wing parties.

But those calculations didn’t count on both Lieberman and Herzog coming to the conclusion that their future prospects would best be served by staying out of the government. Being Netanyahu’s junior partner allowed Lieberman to claim the foreign ministry but it also undermined the rationale for his party’s existence and led to a drastic diminution of its numbers. Just as Lapid had belatedly recognized that being co-opted by the prime minister would be the death of his centrist faction, so, too, did Lieberman also realized that another stint in the Cabinet would be the end of his party even if it did advance the nationalist principles that he claimed to advocate.

Similarly, Herzog recognized that while a national unity government might be in the nation’s best interests in a time of crisis, that wouldn’t give his Labor colleagues the opportunity to blast everything the prime minister was doing. With an eye on the next elections whenever they might occur, he sought to enhance his credibility with the public by staying in the opposition.

Thus, while it might make some sense to blame this standoff on Netanyahu’s prickly personality and the dismissive way he treats friends as well as foes, that factor may not really be the reason the prime minister was only able to amass 61 votes for his new Cabinet. Even if he were far more charming or loyal than he is, Netanyahu wasn’t going to be able to persuade either Lieberman or Herzog to act against their own political interests. The problem is not so much Netanyahu as it is an electoral system that has never yet produced a result that enabled any of the country’s leading parties to form a government on their own. That left the prime minister dependent on Bennett who exacted a stiff price for joining the government just before the six-week period for forming a government expired.

With only 61 votes, Netanyahu is now vulnerable to the whims of any one of his partners. If offended or just for the fun of it, any one of them can topple the government. So it’s hardly surprising that a lot of savvy observers think the rickety edifice won’t stand and that Netanyahu will be forced to call new elections before too long. That would expose him to another uncertain bout with the voters and the next time he might not do as well as the last.

But predictions of the beginning of the end for Netanyahu are premature.

First, narrow coalitions have survived in Israel before and this one may do the same. Though those outside of the government may hope for its collapse, everyone on the inside of it has a vested interest in its survival in the short term. None are likely to do better in a new election. Nor would Netanyahu’s partners stand to benefit if he were forced to come to terms with Herzog. That’s especially true of Bennett, who is the main beneficiary of Lieberman’s defection.

A collapse generated by an unexpected squabble or controversy is certainly possible. But it is just as likely that at some point, Lieberman will come to the conclusion that being in the opposition isn’t boosting his prospects of surviving the next election. Herzog may also decide that it might serve his interests to become foreign minister and deputy prime minister (Netanyahu’s standing offer to him) prior to the next vote in order to boost his prestige and gravitas.

So even if Netanyahu’s Cabinet does come to blows in the coming months and new elections are the result, President Obama, American Jewish left-wingers and all the many other members of the “I hate Bibi” club need to prepare themselves for another bitter truth. The political map of Israel shows no sign of a radical change in the near future. The political left may persuade itself that it is gradually gaining ground on the Likud and its natural partners on the right. But the truth is that so long as Labor is tied to the failed  policies of its past that depended on a non-existent Palestinian desire for peace, it won’t be leading an Israeli government. The odds are, another election will yield the same result as the last three with Netanyahu on top and a rotating cast of characters filling out his Cabinet. Even if his 61-vote government doesn’t survive, Netanyahu will.