The last few days have shown some progress for Marco Rubio’s presidential hopes. That progress is not yet shown in the polls, which continue to show him trailing Donald Trump in national surveys as well as in every state that is up for grabs. But Rubio is finally getting the sort of press coverage and airtime on the broadcast and cable news stations that might alter those numbers. In order to get the attention that has largely been denied him and other Republican candidates not named Donald Trump, Rubio has taken a page from the frontrunner’s playbook, engaging in juvenile insults of Trump as a way of getting people to focus on scandals such as the bogus Trump University or the use of illegal foreign workers in the building of Trump Towers.

Is it enough to change the course of the race? Time will tell but, for the moment, Rubio has an even more pressing problem: how to survive Super Tuesday without winning a single state among all those being contested tomorrow.

Rubio is thought to perhaps have a shot at finishing first in Minnesota but that’s about it. But, given the proportional allocation of delegates in each of the dozen states up for grabs this week, he still has a fair chance of walking away with a lot of delegates by finishing second to Trump in most of them. If he can get 20 percent of the vote in Texas, he can also walk with a share of that state’s huge delegation even if he finishes third there behind Ted Cruz and Trump. Theoretically that keeps him in contention until March 15 when he must win his home state Florida in order to stay alive.

In any nomination battle, smart observers always keep their eyes on the delegate count because that is the way the issue is ultimately settled. Seen from that perspective, Rubio might well be able to survive tomorrow even without a single first place finish because he will probably win a lot of delegates. But Republicans hoping and praying for something to happen that will stop Trump are making a mistake if they are thinking only about the delegate math this week.

Pundits can pretend the Republican race can still be analyzed in a manner that will somehow produce a result that will rationalize their assumptions about Trump having a hard ceiling of voters or what will happen if the race will magically be changed from a five-way scrum in which Rubio, Cruz, and John Kasich are competing to be the leading non-Trump while Ben Carson continues to also take up space and time at the debates. The latest national poll from CNN/ORC that gives Trump 49 percent of Republican voters illustrates that a tipping point is about to be reached. Unless Trump is dealt a stunning blow tomorrow that will shift the momentum of the race, discussion of scenarios about what will happen in a few weeks after some more candidates drop out or about a stalemated Republican convention are about to be rendered moot.

It’s possible that Rubio’s taunts and the scandals that they evoke as well as Trump’s astonishing dog whistle on David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan may change some minds about the schoolyard bully that has dominated the GOP race. But with some establishment figures starting to jump on the bandwagon, that 49 percent figure represents a belief on the part of a lot of Republicans that the battle for the nomination is largely over.

Cruz winning Texas by a relatively small margin and Rubio finishing a respectable second in many other states would mean that Trump couldn’t walk away with the most delegates on Super Tuesday. But with Trump establishing himself as the inevitable nominee, the non-Trumps need more than just to stay alive for another week. Rubio must find a way to give Trump a bloody nose somewhere in the country not so much to make the math work for him but because, if he doesn’t, Trump’s victories in individual states will just signal the party rank and file that further resistance is futile. What Rubio needs is a surge over the next 24 hours that will be fueled by a growing realization that Republicans are handing the keys of their party over to a man who will sink it. Without a lifeline state that gives him at least one first place finish, he is in bigger trouble than his backers wish to believe.

Is it possible? Maybe. Rubio proved in last week’s debate that Trump is vulnerable to attacks. Though conservatives have been waiting in vain for this to happen since last summer, Trump’s bizarre Klan comments could be the wake up call that finally alerts a critical mass of Republicans to the catastrophe that they are embracing. The increased attention Rubio is getting — albeit for nasty Trump-style insults rather than the positive vision that is his trademark — is a hopeful sign for his backers. Whether that is wishful thinking or a forlorn hope will be seen in tomorrow’s results. But if Rubio is shut out on Super Tuesday, we should expect to see Trump’s national numbers continue to rise as more Republicans bow to the inevitable. Which means that despite the spin Rubio’s followers might be selling, a night of seconds and thirds won’t be enough to derail the frontrunner’s juggernaut.