Last summer when other Republicans were assailing Donald Trump for his reluctance to pledge support for their party’s nominee, everyone assumed the point of the discussion was to stop him from running his own third-party challenge to the GOP. Since then the tables have turned. Now the discussion about possible third parties (given that Michael Bloomberg has taken his quixotic scenario off the table) has changed. That discussion now centers on shocked conservative Republicans that might walk out of their party in protest against a populist faction hijacking their party. As of the moment, it’s just talk. But if Trump moves closer to the nomination, then it might become more than that.
With wins in tomorrow’s big five primaries, Trump has an opportunity to more or less lock up the nomination. The polls give him leads in Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, and Maryland, while Ohio is a toss-up. But it’s premature (by at least a day) to assume that means Trump is the certain nominee. It’s possible that the majority of Republican voters will vote strategically and prevent him from taking winner-take-all states with pluralities. It’s also possible that the violence of the past few days for which Trump deserves the lion’s share of the blame will shock enough wavering voters to cause him to suffer an unexpected setback.
But let’s be realistic. Other outrageous statements or stunts from Trump haven’t led to a decline in his support before and it probably won’t now. Trump may lose Ohio to John Kasich and wind up not getting the majority of delegates that he needs prior to the Republican convention this summer. Barring a surprising reversal of fortune, he will arrive in Cleveland with the most delegates and in a good position to make some sort of deal (something he’s good at it) with someone that will give him the nomination.
At that point, the odds are the Republican Party will split. The non-Trump forces could coalesce behind one of the contenders that have competed in the primaries or someone else and deny the frontrunner the nomination. At which point, Trump’s people will almost certainly walk out, and the billionaire will probably try to run as a third party. But if, as is more likely, Trump is able to win the nomination by one means or another, a lot of Republicans won’t accept that either. The question is will it be possible for them to then field their own third party candidate?
The short answer is maybe. But the difficulties would be formidable, and the results are not likely to yield a result that will make anyone happy.
Some conservatives that ought to know better seem to be trying to convince themselves to live with Trump. They seem to be doing so for two reasons.
One is that, contrary to the beliefs of many grassroots voters that see the members of the GOP establishment as a cabal of puppeteers determined to get their way at all costs, most of those who fit under that rubric are far more likely to simply fall into line like the good soldiers they are. The term establishment doesn’t have much meaning but, to the extent that it means anything, it generally brings to mind politicians and activists that are temperamentally incapable of plotting a rebellion against the winner of the process they helped design, let alone carry one out. If their party is captured by an irresponsible and completely unqualified presidential candidate fueled by the anger of a plurality of the voters, a lot of Republicans will be more likely to sadly throw up their hands and accept their fate.
The other reason why some conservatives that have strongly opposed Trump may be willing to accept to him as their party’s nominee is a natural inclination to oppose whatever it is that liberals are saying. The fact that the mainstream media and liberal talking heads and pundits are condemning Trump is enough to motivate them to rally behind him on the basis of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” concept. Just because liberals are damning Trump doesn’t make him a conservative or someone other than a figure who is in the process of destroying the Republican Party, but that isn’t stopping a lot of people on the right from defending him on that basis.
But not all conservatives will be either so craven or so deceived. Many will stay home or walk away from a Trump-led GOP. What will it take to convert that into a genuine third party effort?
The first thing they’ll need is a candidate and enough serious conservative, and Republican supporters to make a credible opposition. Would it be one of the existing candidates? Ted Cruz has already said it won’t be him since he says he’s honor-bound to keep his word and back the nominee. Perhaps Marco Rubio or John Kasich will be tempted, but any of them will be tainted by the odor of defeat at Trump’s hands. The possibility of Mitt Romney or some other establishment figure parachuting into the election won’t be much more attractive.
But, as his recent behavior indicates, Trump seems temperamentally incapable of behaving in a presidential manner or even pretending to be a responsible candidate. Along with liberal/populist policy positions on trade, entitlements and foreign policy and his complete absence of policy knowledge and lack of solutions that are more than slogans, the dog whistle about David Duke and his encouragement of violence at his rallies ought to make it impossible for many principled conservatives or Republicans to accept Trump.
If enough of the mainstream GOP office holders, activists and donors get behind an alternative to a Trump GOP, it will probably be possible to get on many state ballots. But anyone that thinks such a candidate could win is dreaming. This would be a symbolic effort intended to vindicate the honor of conservatism from the taint of Trump, not a serious attempt to win the presidency.
A fundamental realignment of American politics might be starting, in which a populist Trump movement steals from both parties as those on the right that see opposition to illegal immigration as the defining issue of the generation and white working class Democrats attracted to Trump’s message on trade and his empty promises about American greatness join forces. But whether or not mainstream conservatives stay home or create a rump GOP, this is still a formula for victory for the Democrats since Trump will alienate far more mainstream and minority voters that he will attract.
As things stand now, Trump will probably lose a head-to-head matchup against Clinton because a) a lot of conservatives will simply stay home rather than vote for him and b) he will generate an enormous turnout among minority voters and the Democratic base that will offset their loss of working class whites. But a conservative walk out on Trump would likely mean a permanent schism in the GOP. The Trumpites would never forgive their man’s opponents for denying him the presidency either by deals at the convention or via a third party challenge. But the rise of Trump populism means that it is probably happening anyway as those disgusted by Trump are going to have to find an alternative if the Republicans become a vehicle for his cult of personality. The window for avoiding such a schism is getting smaller every day.
