Sarah Palin’s announcement yesterday that she won’t be seeking the 2012 Republican presidential nomination was, as Charles Krauthammer said on Fox News, about as startling as a bulletin announcing that the Sun will be rising in the East.
But the really interesting thing about her withdrawal was not her decision but the lack of interest in it. Palin has been teasing the media and her deluded followers all year about running without any real intent to actually launch a candidacy. This routine in which she attempted to steal the thunder of the actual presidential candidates garnered attention back in the Spring but it had run out of steam by the time she finally acknowledged what everybody already knew this week. What is most astonishing about Palin is how through poor decisions she has transformed herself from a figure of genuine importance on the right to a sideshow act.
As most commentators have rightly observed, Palin had everything to lose and little to gain from attempting a presidential run. Though she started 2011 with a dedicated following of conservative admirers, no other possible Republican candidate had higher negative poll ratings. Though some of the more viable candidates who did enter the race also have their problems, none were as unelectable as Palin.
Much of the abuse that was rained down upon her when she was John McCain’s running mate was unfair. However Palin’s subsequent decisions to resign as governor of Alaska and to transform herself into more of a celebrity and reality TV star than anything else diminished her ability to present herself as a serious person. Her hatred of the media may play well among her acolytes but everyone else got tired of it. This was compounded by a bizarre decision to try and horn in on the campaign without actually running or endorsing someone. That silly piece of business culminated in a withdrawal announcement that appeared to be an attempt to piggyback on the focus on Chris Christie’s press conference in which he said he wouldn’t run. The main difference between the two was obvious. The public cared about Christie’s decision. Few paid attention to Palin.
There will be those who will cite polls that say Palin still commands the affection of a core group of Republicans. Others will attempt to parse her words and wonder if she will try to run as an independent next year presumably to serve as an outlet of frustration for conservatives who can’t bring themselves to vote for Romney. But any further effort devoted to analyzing her political career would be a waste of time.
There will also be observers who will note that it didn’t have to be this way. Palin had a sparkling record as a good government conservative who ran against the GOP machine in Alaska before the liberal mainstream media wrongly demonized her in 2008. But other conservatives have survived such onslaughts without transforming themselves into caricatures. Had she stuck to her job in Juneau and then undertaken a plan of study and preparation, she might have been able to put her impressive God-given political talent to use as a successful national candidate at some point. But that was not the path she chose and we should not chide for being someone other than who she really is. As even those of us who initially applauded her arrival on the stage learned, the Sarah Palin who might have been president was always an illusion.