Tim Pawlenty’s presidential campaign has endured a summer of misery and disappointment. But the question before us now is whether this once promising first-tier contender has come to the end of his tether. It is possible a good performance at the televised debate in Ames on Thursday night or a better than expected showing in the straw poll on Saturday will resurrect his candidacy. But don’t count on it.
The expected entry of Rick Perry into the race this weekend further complicates an already barely tenable situation for Pawlenty. In May, he looked to be the main rival to Mitt Romney and hoped to get strong support from conservative Christians and Tea Partiers. Three months later, he’s become an afterthought in the wake of the rise of Michele Bachmann and the anticipated push from Perry. Indeed, in a poll published today, he finished dead last among Michigan Republicans trailing even Thaddeus McCotter, a first that provoked a cascade of satirical remarks about Pawlenty on Twitter (though McCotter has nothing to brag about since the same poll showed a majority of Republicans in his home state had never heard of him).
Pawlenty entered the race not taking Bachmann very seriously. Even a few weeks ago, after it had already been demonstrated that she had overtaken and even lapped him, the former Minnesota governor was still heaping scorn on her record. But this week in the lead-up to Ames, Pawlenty’s people are doing their best to hype their rival’s chances so as to create a situation where anything less than a Bachmann landslide will be perceived as a loss for her. At the same time, they’ve tried to lower expectations for their own man, hoping even a distant second or third-place finish in the poll could be represented as a manifestation of his “comeback kid” hopes.
But once Perry is formally into the battle, we can expect Pawlenty to fade even further into the background. Unlike some of the more marginal candidates whose campaigns have always operated on a small scale and been unburdened by high expectations, Pawlenty raised money on the premise he was a viable contender, not a long shot. It’s unclear whether he has the ability to procure enough funds to keep him going through the rest of the year with such poor prospects. While it seems absurd for anything as undemocratic as the Ames straw poll to finish a presidential candidacy, that is what may happen to Pawlenty.
If indeed these are the last days of Tim Pawlenty’s presidential hopes, future candidates will be able to use his campaign as tutorial. Pawlenty had–and still has–a great deal going for him. He’s got a good resume, strong, coherent positions on both the economy and foreign policy and a likeable personality. He appeared to be an ideal candidate. But even though he seemed to have every advantage over Bachmann, he lacked what she seems to have in abundance: the ability to connect with voters and to engender enthusiasm. His “Minnesota Nice” approach paled in comparison to her passionate advocacy.
And yes, we’ll never forget that awful moment in the New Hampshire debate when Pawlenty choked when offered an opportunity to blast Mitt Romney on the health care issue to his face. As they say, you never get a second chance to make a first impression, and Pawlenty probably never recovered from the perception he just didn’t have the guts to stand toe-to-toe with his rival.
Soon the Pawlenty campaign may be just another footnote in presidential campaign history. If it is remembered, it will be as an object lesson instructing us that good position papers on the issues are no substitute for personality and charisma.
