Rick Perry came into the Republican presidential race as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. Yet, all his once-promising candidacy may have accomplished is to bring many right-wingers around to Romney. By allowing the former Massachusetts governor to slip to his right on immigration, Perry may have not only sunk his own hopes for the presidency but also strengthened his main rival.
Romney’s main obstacle to the nomination has been the belief conservatives would never forgive him for passing a Massachusetts health care law that might have been the inspiration for Obamacare. But at this moment, the backlash against Perry’s defense of his state’s allowing the children of illegal immigrants an in-state discount for college seems to be even more passionate. This surprising turn of events poses the question of whether it is possible immigration has supplanted Obamacare and tax/budget issues as the top priority for Republicans? While the answer to that question is no, that may not save Perry’s faltering candidacy.
Since the beginning of the Obama presidency and the passage of his trillion-dollar stimulus boondoggle, opposition to tax and spend liberalism and the expansion of entitlements has been the cause that united the Republican Party. In particular, the passage of Obamacare in 2010 mobilized the GOP base and become the issue around which the Republicans won the midterm elections. That might well have doomed Romney’s hopes had the other candidates concentrated their fire on this point and his many other flip-flops. But that’s not the way things have played out.
Instead of the field ganging up on Romney to highlight his weakness on health care, the candidates have been aiming their barbs at Perry. Though initially the press concentrated on attempts to exploit Perry’s rhetoric about Social Security, the one issue with traction for Republicans was the Texas governor’s somewhat moderate stand on immigration. Perry was beaten up in the Orlando debate last week over his skepticism about a border fence as well as his support for extending education benefits to illegals and their children that are available to other residents of the state. This issue seems to have also had a serious impact on the Florida Straw Poll vote this past weekend in which Perry was drubbed.
There is no question anger about illegal immigration resonates with conservatives and the Republican base. As someone whose entire candidacy is based on an appeal to these voters, Perry’s opinions on the issue would seem to doom his campaign. But though there is good reason to believe Perry’s candidacy is imploding, it would be a mistake to assume this means immigration will be the key issue for the GOP in 2012. Up until this kerfuffle over the Texas legislation, immigration had been of marginal interest to the candidates. Though his immigration stance is a big problem, if this was Perry’s only flaw, he might easily survive it. But coming as it does on the heels of his disastrous debate performances, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion immigration is giving conservatives the excuse they need to abandon his sinking ship.
If Perry leaves the race (which, despite his desperate position at the moment, is not something anyone should assume), it’s likely we wouldn’t hear much about immigration again. As for Romney, should he repossess the mantle of frontrunner in the wake of a Perry meltdown, we should expect his rivals to hone in on his health care problem. There is still plenty of time before the voting starts, and he should not expect to get a free pass on this issue for much longer. Those who tout Romney’s electability should also remember that as much as his cynical tilt to the right is helping him now, it may hurt him and the GOP badly next November when they seek Hispanic votes.
