It was a moment that will live on as long as American democracy or at least as long as there is video and a way to watch it. Rick Perry’s extended brain freeze when he couldn’t remember which government agencies he wanted to disband was as awkward a moment as has ever been witnessed during a national political debate and far worse than any of his previous debate mishaps that caused his poll numbers to crater. Not only will there be no Perry comeback, but in spite of his large campaign war chest it is hard to see how a candidacy that is no more of a punch line than anything else survives after this.
But while everyone will be talking more about Perry’s blooper film highlight more than any other moment in tonight’s debate, the evening produced some other clear winners and losers. Herman Cain showed that in spite of crippling accusations of sexual harassment from four different women, he’s undaunted and able to put on another spirited performance. Newt Gingrich once again showed why he thrives in any debate format. Yet the even bigger story is that despite taking a pounding from the moderators, Mitt Romney is the one who left the stage as the most likely to win the nomination.
Though many observers have been wondering which of the Republicans will benefit the most from a Cain collapse, a better question to ask is who will snatch up those who were still backing Perry prior to his latest addition to the annals of political bloopers. The obvious answer would be either Cain or Gingrich since they appear to be the most viable of all the conservatives left in the race. But with both of these men burdened with flaws that may prove insurmountable obstacles to victory once the votes start being counted in the caucuses and primaries, a slightly battered Mitt Romney must still be considered the Republican to beat.
It wasn’t a great night for Romney, who was put often put on the defensive on healthcare–the issue that remains his Achilles’ heel. Romney stumbled at times and looked queasy when reminded that he had worked with Ted Kennedy to pass his Massachusetts bill that Democrats now say inspired Obamacare. Pressed to explain his reputation as a flip-flopper, he astonished the audience by pointing out that as a man with a 42-year marriage and a lifelong Mormon he is anything but inconstant. But Romney never lost his cool and was still able to score points in defense of the market and in favor of a measured approach to tax reform that will serve him well in the general election.
Cain’s low point was his answer to the inevitable question about the sexual harassment. As he did during yesterday’s disastrous news conference, he simply denied everything and called his accusers — all four of them — liars. The audience roared its approval, but this issue won’t go away. His fans may consider it unfair, but unless he can prove they all are not telling the truth, his candidacy is fatally compromised. Yet as the night went on, Cain regained his confidence and resumed spewing the sort of comic one-liners that won him the affection of so many Republicans. Though he has probably reached his ceiling in the polls, Cain’s strong performance may have ensured that his numbers won’t crater the way some expected they would.
Similarly, it was another good night for Gingrich, who again won applause by bashing the moderators and the press. His recent surge in the polls will probably continue, but it should be pointed out that this has only been made possible by the fact that no one has taken him seriously as a potential president.
Romney may still be having trouble convincing most conservatives that he can be trusted, but with the conservative field still deeply divided even after a Perry meltdown, it’s difficult to envision either Cain or Gingrich, let alone marginal figures like Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum (both of whom had trouble making their voices heard during the debate) being able to take advantage of Romney’s weakness. So long as there are multiple conservative challengers all competing for the same slice of the electorate, Romney is still well placed to emerge with pluralities in all of the early states. Though Tea Partiers and social conservatives are still having trouble warming up to him, the race is still Romney’s to lose.
