Tonight’s Republican presidential debate in Orlando comes at an interesting moment in the race. Rick Perry’s initial burst to the top has petered out after a couple of uninspiring debate performances. That allowed former frontrunner Mitt Romney to gain back some ground, setting up what might be a memorable confrontation this evening that could set the tone for the rest of the campaign.
The emergence of Perry has given Romney’s campaign a focus it had lacked until now. Making conservatives love Romney has been a tough sell given his record of flip-flops and championing of a Massachusetts health care bill strikingly similar to Obamacare. The GOP grass roots may never like Romney, but if he can convince most Republicans Perry can’t beat Barack Obama, he will have found a path to the nomination. But convincing the party Perry is the second coming of Barry Goldwater or George McGovern won’t be as easy as Romney may think.
Since his poll numbers leveled off, it’s obvious Perry has two different sets of problems. One is despite his record of electoral victories in a huge state like Texas, he has come across in the debates as a bit soft and unready for the kind of tough exchanges that come with a presidential candidacy. The other is a lot of the characteristics that endear him to Tea Partiers and other conservatives are a turn off for the talking heads and other party figures who are solely focused on winning next November. His vulnerability on issues like Social Security, his passionate religious faith and his image as a shoot-from-the-hip Texan has convinced many Republicans he can’t beat Obama.
This means tonight is Romney’s moment to take back control of this race. If he emerges the clear victor in the debate it would feed the doubts that have emerged about Perry. Even more importantly, it might stifle talk of a Chris Christie candidacy that would only serve to divide the moderate and centrist vote and ensure Perry’s nomination.
Going on the offensive and pounding Perry on Social Security hoping it leads to more gaffes from the Texan seems like the obvious move for Romney. But doing so will require some nimble footwork. Running to the left of anyone, even Rick Perry, is a perilous business in a Republican primary. Setting yourself up as the moderate in the race makes sense if you are thinking general election, but not when you’re vying for conservative votes.
If Perry can recover his footing and stay focused for the entire debate tonight as opposed to just the first half hour (as has been the case in his two previous tries), then the electability issue may not have as much traction. Perry may not be as smooth and articulate as Romney, but neither is he a blundering buffoon. Perry’s goal must be to make Romney’s record on health care and social issues the focus of the argument. So long as Republicans are talking about Obamacare, Perry is winning. If they’re talking about Ponzi schemes, the advantage goes to Romney.
The other challenge tonight will be to see which of the two comes across as the more credible commander-in-chief on foreign policy issues. Both Romney and Perry have floundered when discussing Afghanistan in previous debates. Since the Arab-Israeli conflict is bound to come up tonight, this presents an opportunity for Perry to speak from the heart on Israel and brag about his many trips to the country in a way that will trump Romney’s blander approach.
In the last week, Romney has made significant progress in derailing a Perry juggernaut that seemed likely to overwhelm the field. Tonight is his best chance to hammer home the point he is the most electable Republican while still trying to appeal to conservatives. That will be tricky, but the key to his success isn’t so much what Romney says but whether Perry will cooperate with another lackluster performance.
