In the latest bizarre twist to the civil war still raging in Libya, the son of dictator Muammar Qaddafi announced the regime was allying itself with local Islamists. Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi told the New York Times this new alliance will drive liberals from the country, vowing: “Libya will look like Saudi Arabia, like Iran. So what?”
This is a strange turn of events, because the Qaddafis have spent most of the past few months attempting to portray the rebels as being in bed with Islamists, a line of argument taken up by many American critics of the NATO intervention in that country. It also comes only a week after Britain and France indicated they could live with a settlement which allowed Qaddafi to remain in the country, a concession that could only be seen as sign the West believes the regime is unlikely to be defeated on the battlefield.
So what does this startling statement portend?
The interview with the Times does give us, as the paper said itself, a “rare glimpse into the defiant, some say delusional, mentality of the Qaddafi family at a time when they have all but completely retreated from public view.” But it would be a mistake to dismiss it as the ravings of a regime about to fall. Qaddafi has spent most of the last 40 years in power dealing with and aiding terrorists, so the idea he would go into business with this faction is not a stretch.
While it is always a perilous leap of faith to read too closely into any statement made by the Qaddafi family, the most straightforward interpretation of these remarks is they are an attempt to split the rebel coalition that has always included Muslim religious parties. The recent death of the rebel’s leading military commander may have opened up fissures in the Benghazi government that Qaddafi seeks to exploit.
But this gambit may also make sense if we see it as an attempt to raise the stakes in the standoff between Tripoli and the West. It could be the talk of allying themselves with Islamists is a way to signal unless NATO accepts the permanence of the regime, it will pay a higher price in terms of terrorism than anyone had counted on.
The intervention in Libya has been hampered by the half-hearted support of the United States and the fact the rebels are clearly incapable of defeating Qaddafi even with NATO air support. But this latest statement from Qaddafi’s son amply illustrates the danger of allowing his regime to survive a Western challenge. A revived Qaddafi regime allied with Islamists would pose a strategic threat to NATO and the United States. Enthusiasm for the Libyan conflict has been in short supply both here and in Europe. But those who have expressed justified concerns about what a post-Qaddafi Libya would look like need to consider that the alternative might be far more dangerous for the West.