So now that Chris Christie has finally put an end to the Republican Party’s yearlong quest for a presidential messiah, where do all those wonks and activists who longed for a viable conservative alternative to Mitt Romney go now? While some Tea Partiers and social conservatives have, at least for the moment, jumped on the Herman Cain bandwagon or are deceiving themselves into believing that Rick Perry can recover, that isn’t exactly what those who spent the summer dreaming about Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Christie had in mind.
All of which means in spite of what many conservatives rightly believe is his lack of strong convictions, flip flopping and faulty record on government mandated health care, those who pined for Christie will now inevitably turn to Romney.
In all likelihood, this means a very conservative Republican Party may be about to nominate someone for president who is somewhat to the left of most GOP activists. It is remarkable that this may occur in a second consecutive presidential election. Certainly it is not something most observers thought possible, particularly because the GOP today is even more conservative than the party that wound up choosing John McCain.
Of course, since we are about three months away from the first caucuses and primaries, it may be a bit early for a post-mortem. But Christie’s removal of his name from consideration must be seen as an enormous triumph for Romney. Had the New Jersey governor run, he would have cut deeply into the pool of centrist and moderate Republicans that forms the base of Romney’s support.
That still sets up a lively competition for Tea Party and social conservative voters who are still turned off by Romney. With Michele Bachmann’s summer surge in a state of complete collapse and Perry reeling from bad debate performances and an inability to explain his deviations from conservative opinion on immigration, it could be Cain who turns out to be the 2012 version of Mike Huckabee. But if Cain is truly moving up to the GOP first tier then it is more than likely the increased scrutiny will sink a candidate with a predilection for gaffes and statements that reveal his utter ignorance of any topic that isn’t directly related to business–as surely as it did Bachmann and Perry.
This means the race is now clearly Romney’s to lose. And with Romney cynically tilting to the right on immigration in order to discomfit Perry, it may be that some conservatives who believe beating Barack Obama next November outweighs all other considerations, will defect to the author of the Massachusetts health care plan. Of course, there is still plenty of time for Romney to slip up in some way or for Rick Perry to regain his mojo. But right now, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Romney ascending the podium in Tampa next September to accept the GOP nomination.