The winnowing of the 2016 race may finally be paying off for Marco Rubio. Hours after Rubio’s strong second-place showing in South Carolina and Jeb Bush’s suspension of his campaign, Huffington Post reported that Mitt Romney was preparing to endorse Rubio’s presidential bid. This is something that will, if it turns out to be true (and Rubio denied the story) as the HuffPo noted, be taken as the GOP establishment finally “circling the wagons” around Rubio as the designated savior to stop South Carolina winner Donald Trump from cruising to the GOP nomination. With the Bush dynasty now at last officially conceding that it can’t spend its way to the nomination and with Trump sweeping through primaries by holding onto a rock solid third of Republican voters, the time has come for those who want to stop him to act. After pretending that Jeb could somehow revive his flagging candidacy for months, some party elders are waking up to the fact that they must unite around an alternative or watch helplessly as Trump wins state after state.
The assumption is that if Romney does get on board, it will help sway Bush donors and most of his voters to switch sides and back the Florida senator. There is also the hope that Romney can set off a cascade of endorsements from mainstream Republicans that will help pressure Ohio Governor John Kasich to leave the race and allow Rubio to have the moderate/establishment lane to himself. That creates the possibility of a genuine three-man race with Trump and Ted Cruz that gives Rubio a fighting chance if we assume that Trump has reached a hard ceiling with his consistent share of one-third of Republicans in both the early primaries and the polls.
But while Rubio will be happy to get Romney’s help, his supporters would be foolish to think there isn’t a downside to this.
If Rubio gets it, Romney’s endorsement is, as much as anything, the party establishment seal of approval. That should rally a lot of money and support to Rubio’s cause that has up until now been wasted on Bush as well as Chris Christie and even the abortive campaign run by Scott Walker. It might also help sway some Mormon votes in Nevada this week to back Rubio in that state’s caucuses on Tuesday night.
But as surely even Romney may have noticed, being the establishment choice is exactly the wrong label to be sporting in an election year in which most Republicans are fed up with their party leaders.
It is hard for some Republicans to understand Trump supporters that claim to be conservatives but yet are supporting the man who is clearly the least conservative serious GOP presidential candidate in decades. Part of that is the way illegal immigration has become the hot button issue for many on the right. But mostly it has to do with the grass roots feeling betrayed by Republicans in Congress. Part of that resentment is justified, as party leaders have not been terribly effective in frustrating President Obama’s liberal agenda. But much of it is misdirected anger that might better be aimed at Obama. The reality of divided government means that no Congressional majority can dictate government policy, especially when it is up against a president that is willing to play fast and loose with the Constitution in his efforts to impose his will.
But whether it is justified or not, putting the establishment crown on Rubio’s head does him no favors. Romney, who is wrongly blamed for failing to defeat Obama in an election that no Republican could have won, alienates as many GOP primary voters as he will attract to Rubio. The same will be true of any other major endorsers that may scramble into Rubio’s camp now that Bush’s ship has sunk. Romney won’t do much to win over Ted Cruz supporters or convince Trumpites to understand that the man they are supporting is not a conservative and can’t be relied upon to keep any of his promises.
Assuming that Republicans that don’t want Trump to be their nominee are capable of uniting around an alternative, Rubio does have a path to victory even if it is an uphill one at this point. But it involves him pulling off a rather difficult balancing act.
On the one hand, he needs the establishment to hop on his bandwagon if he is to have any chance. Romney and former Bush backers can help solidify his support and perhaps even the odds with Trump. Votes for mainstream candidates have amounted to about 35-45 percent of those cast so far in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. If, and that’s a big “if,” most of these like-minded voters line up behind Rubio in upcoming contests that ought to allow him to match Trump’s support.
But at the same time, Rubio can’t allow himself to be seen as the mouthpiece of an establishment that has lost the confidence of the Republican base.
Can he do both?
As someone that ran for the Senate as a Tea Party insurgent against a moderate Republican in 2010, Rubio can credibly claim to be as conservative as anyone else in the race, including 2010. But his deviation from right-wing Orthodoxy on immigration is always going to be thrown in his face by party stalwarts who see that as a litmus test issue. Rubio does a good job explaining his position, but it’s a hard sell for many on the right. And the more he is associated with establishment figures like Romney, the harder it will be.
Nevertheless, the next few weeks will be make or break time for Rubio. He will have to show that he is tough enough to withstand the expected onslaught of abuse from Trump once he appears to be a genuine threat to his hold on the nomination (Trump’s floating of a risible canard about Rubio being ineligible for the presidency is just the start). If voters sense that his failure in the New Hampshire debate when Chris Christie sought to take him down is evidence of a glass jaw that shows he can be intimidated, that will be fatal. Kasich’s unwillingness to withdraw will also be a major problem.
But with Cruz’s hopes of solidifying the religious conservative vote behind him evaporating last night in South Carolina, Rubio’s moment has arrived. If Trump is to be beaten, Rubio is probably the only remotely viable alternative to the frontrunner left even if he still hasn’t won a primary or caucus. Being the anointed hope of the establishment gives him new life, but it also could be his Achilles Heel.
