Yesterday, the Obama administration let drop a salient fact about its policy toward Iran. At a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Stephen Mull, the administration’s coordinator for implementation of the Iran nuclear deal confirmed that the U.S. plans on lifting sanctions as early as January. This is way ahead of the schedule that Secretary of State John Kerry mooted when he was trying to persuade Congress to back the deal earlier this year. At that time, the spring of 2016 was the earliest we were told sanctions would be lifted since the Western nations that had signed the accord wanted to wait until Iran had fully complied with its components before starting to reward them with new business opportunities. But apparently President Obama and Kerry are simply too impatient to embrace their Iranian negotiating partners to wait until we see how Iran behaves for a few months under the deal’s inspection regime.
Kerry sent a letter to the Senate averring that Iran was fully complying with every part of the deal. Since they’re supposedly doing what they should, the administration thinks there’s no harm in rewarding them. But this eagerness seemed to put off even the Democratic members of the committee. Delaware Senator Chris Coons, who loyally backed President Obama’s initiative vainly said something about a policy in which the U.S. would “relentless enforce” the deal. Ranking member Ben Cardin, who was one of the few Democrats to oppose the pact, vainly asked what was the rush? The only answer he got was a reassurance from Mull was that Iran was being very good.
But, of course, we know that the happy talk about Iran coming from the State Department should be taken with a truckload of salt. Iran has already violated a key provision of the nuclear deal package when it conducted not one, but two tests of advanced ballistic missiles that could deliver a potential nuclear weapon to an Israeli target. This expressly violated United Nations restrictions on their missile program as even the U.S. noted. But Iran didn’t even bother trying to hide their behavior.
Just this week, Iran’s Defense Minister Hossein Deghan boasted nothing would deter the Islamist regime from doing whatever it liked with respect to its weapons programs. He said they would not accept any limitations on its missiles and wouldn’t be deterred from testing them.
The U.S. has said it would respond to these violations but so far, that has amounted to exactly nothing.
This is in addition to the dismaying spectacle that went on this week when, at the urging of the United States, the International Atomic Energy Agency voted to end its investigation of Iran’s past research into possible military dimensions (PMDs) of its nuclear program. This was despite the discrepancies that turned up at the Parchin military site when the IAEA was finally allowed in for a brief visit. The IAEA also concluded that Iran had been lying about not working on a bomb throughout the last decade. The question of whether they are still lying is open to debate. But, like the issue of compliance with the current deal, the administration isn’t interested in letting the dust settle and seeing how serious Iran is about keeping its commitments.
The rush to lift international sanctions is critical because once they are gone resurrecting them will be next to impossible. The U.S. clearly sees Iran as more of an ally in the half-hearted struggle it is waging against ISIS and wants nothing to interfere with its push for détente with the ayatollahs no matter what they do. The goal here is clearly to create a fait accompli that will create a relationship that can’t be upset by anything Iran does or, perhaps, even a change in government in the U.S. after Obama departs the scene in 13 months.
Given the ease with which Obama managed to thwart opponents of the deal despite the fact that the majority of both Houses of Congress and the American people opposed it, the administration probably believes they’ll have no trouble about the sanctions. And given the incompetence of those opposing their desire to empower the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, it’s hard to argue with their confidence.
But there shouldn’t be any mistake about the consequences of this rush to lift sanctions. In doing so, the U.S. is sending a loud message to Iran that it need never fear being held accountable for any possible violations of the accord. The missile firings were more than tests of weapons systems. They were, instead, a test of American willingness to enforce the deal. President Obama’s failure to take the issue seriously means that it will be just the first such instances in which the U.S. will express concern but do nothing. While one can argue that the missiles are a side issue, if Washington not only won’t take a stand but actually works to rush the lifting of sanctions, it is a crystal clear that anything goes when it comes to Iran’s behavior.
That reluctance to challenge Tehran is actually scarier than the fact that the regime is keeping its nuclear infrastructure and will be allowed to continue its advanced research until the deal expires in a decade. If the signing of this deal ensured that Iran would, sooner or later, get a bomb. The hurry to lift sanctions means it will likely be sooner rather than later that the West faces this peril.
