A couple of weeks ago Congresswoman Michele Bachmann said that she was praying for Divine guidance about not only whether she should run for president but who ought to run her campaign. But her comments in an interview with Fox News made it sound as if at least some of her prayers have been answered. Bachmann may jump into the race in advance of planned trips to both Iowa and New Hampshire next week.
For the majority of pundits who have been concentrating on reading the tea leaves in Indianapolis as Mitch Daniels keeps Republicans waiting, Bachmann’s choice is not as big a deal. But although I would agree with those who would parachute Daniels in at the head of the pack once he launches his campaign, Republicans would be foolish to underestimate the impact of a Bachmann candidacy. Bachmann is considered by most pundits to be too flaky to win the nomination, let alone the presidency. But she has three factors going for her that could make her a formidable contender.
First, although all of the Republican contenders will claim to represent the interest of Tea Party voters, Bachmann is the real thing. No other candidate will have the same combination of extreme distaste for government and populist fervor that animates Bachmann. Her rise to national prominence is the direct result of Tea Party activism and she will be able to count on their enthusiastic backing.
Second, unlike some of the more mainstream candidates, she will also have a strong appeal for social conservatives who are looking for a standard bearer for their issues now that Mike Huckabee has taken himself out of the race. That will be crucial in Iowa which will be a make or break state for Bachmann.
Third, she will inherit the mantle of Sarah Palin. Granted, such a label would be a liability in many contexts but no one is better placed to appeal to the many Republicans who lined up to buy Palin’s books and cheer the former vice presidential candidate. While Bachmann doesn’t have the same level of charisma as Palin, as the only attractive, outspoken conservative woman in the race, she will be the natural home for Palin’s fans.
Bachmann is prone to gaffes and her radical approach to governance means that there is probably a low ceiling to her support. And there is always the chance that Palin could decide to run which would sink Bachmann’s hopes. But if Palin stays out, Bachmann will have no problem raising money and, like Huckabee in 2008, could emerge from the early going as the most viable of all the so-called second-tier candidates. After there it is hard to plot a path for her to get to the nomination. But one imagines that her strategists, whether they have been sent to her from the Almighty or not, are not thinking past Iowa and the other early states.