You didn’t think the Iranians were going to let this week pass without sending a message of their own to Obama, did you? The Associated Press reported today that Tehran tested a missile on Wednesday “with a range of about 1,200 miles, far enough to strike Israel, southeastern Europe and U.S. bases in the Middle East.”
The report went on to state that:
A group of U.S. and Russian scientists said in a report issued Tuesday that Iran could produce a simple nuclear device in one to three years and a nuclear warhead in another five years after that.
The study published by the nonpartisan EastWest Institute also said Iran is making advances in rocket technology and could develop a ballistic missile capable of firing a 2,200-pound nuclear warhead up to 1,200 miles “in perhaps six to eight years.
Even accepting this timeline, the above means that should President Obama realize by the end of the year that his strategy of talking about talking to Tehran is a failure, it may well be too late.
Many pundits have been trying to figure out whether it was Obama who got the best of Netanyahu (David Ignatius says “yes”) or if Bibi bested Barack (Martin Indyk frets that Obama lost) at their meeting earlier this week. But if America and Israel remain divided about the threat from Iran, with Washington lacking any interest in taking action, the real winners would be the ayatollahs and their current front-man Ahmadinejad. With America focused on trying to do something impossible — convince the Palestinians to make peace with Israel — rather than on rallying the world to stop the Iranian nuclear threat, the Islamists in Tehran gain precious time to advance their nuclear program and build their influence via their terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon.
My sense is that, contrary to the hopes of the Left, Obama is prevaricating on the Middle East, talking a good game and promising change (as he will, no doubt, in his address to the Arab world from Cairo next month), but shying away from a real confrontation with Israel since the chances of getting the Palestinians to agree to any deal, no matter how generous, are virtually zero. This will, he may hope, give him time and space to concentrate on his radical domestic agenda of transforming American society.
But the problem with being president is that foreign policy has a way of dominating your time in office. Unexpected factors and events always crop up to deter even the most domestic-minded of chief executives. The irony here is that because of his unwillingness to treat the problem of Iran seriously in his first year in the White House, it will loom much larger later on. Indeed, because of his current feckless devotion to appeasement of Tehran, the consequences of a nuclear Iran may well define Obama’s presidential legacy in ways he never dreamed were possible.
