Now they’re coordinating? That’s the question that the majority of Republicans who have been voting as well as hoping for a presidential nominee not named Donald Trump are asking today in response to the news that Ted Cruz and John Kasich have finally decided to coordinate their efforts in the remaining primaries. This will mean that Kasich will shut down his operation in Indiana leaving Cruz free to take on Trump there while Cruz will not try to compete in Oregon and New Mexico in favor of Kasich.
Trump, the target of this scheme, denounced the joint decision by Cruz and Kasich as an act of “desperation,” and for once, he might be right about that. But for now the questions we should be asking about it are, what took them so long and, more importantly, will it work?
One of the main stories of the 2016 Republican nomination race is how the various alternatives to Trump helped sabotage each other. It was clear to some of us as far back as last August that the large field of GOP candidates was competing against each other leaving Trump free to consolidate a plurality of voters who wanted an alternative to the rest. After his impressive wins in New Hampshire and Florida, it was even more apparent that stopping him required the shrinking number of remaining contenders to coordinate their efforts.
But that wasn’t possible. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio were all competing for roughly the same group of voters and wouldn’t bow to reality until forced to do so. Bush dropped out after South Carolina. Ted Cruz, who thought he had the Christian conservative vote locked up until Trump started beating him in the South as well as the North, was similarly disinclined to work with other candidates. Though Rubio had what seemed like the best chance to beat Trump in Florida, Cruz and Kasich both competed there as well. That ensured a Trump victory. But Cruz and Kasich were not displeased since that forced Rubio out of the race.
That was incredibly shortsighted. Yet both Cruz and Kasich were still operating under the assumption that if they were left alone against Trump, they would win. Yet neither was prepared to accept the fact that neither of them would ever bow out in order to let the other prevail. So they both stayed in and even began expending resources on trashing each other. This was incredibly frustrating to the majority of Republicans who wanted to stop Trump, but both Cruz and Kasich were in business for themselves.
Given the vast differences between the two, this was understandable to some extent. To Cruz and his supporters, Kasich’s mainstream appeal was anathema. For Kasich, Cruz’s hard line Tea Party tactics were equally appalling. But while they were bickering over who should be the alternative to Trump, the celebrity real estate mogul continued to gain ground. By the end of March, it was obvious that the only way to stop Trump was for both Cruz and Kasich to get as many delegates as possible in order to deny the frontrunner a first ballot victory clearing the path to an open convention. The path forward for the non-Trumps was obvious and became more so with each passing week in March and April. But their egos, as well as their differing mindsets, prevented them from agreeing to a simple division of labors that would allow whichever of them had the best shot at stopping Trump in any state to have a free hand.
What changed their minds?
Perhaps it was the Trump landslide in New York that put him back on track for the nomination after Cruz’s win in Wisconsin seemed to make an open convention a more likely scenario. Perhaps, too, it was the way many establishment Republican figures seemed to be acting in the last week as if they were ready to make their peace with Trump. As is always the way with primaries, the notion of Trump’s inevitability is not only causing some politicians to jump on the bandwagon, it’s also influencing some voters to be inclined to back a winner rather than to cast a protest vote.
Faced with another day of Trump victories in Tuesday’s remaining Northeastern primaries — especially in Pennsylvania where both Cruz and Kasich have been active — they had no alternative but to make the informal deal that became known last night.
Is it too late to make a difference?
The answer to that question is probably. After tomorrow, the frontrunner will be in such a strong position that for many Republican officials, the choice won’t be so much Trump or non-Trump as it will be Trump or chaos. Even if he gains the support of only a minority of the unbound delegates yet to declare their allegiance, Trump is going to very close to the 1,237 he needs for a majority and a first ballot win. While a few setbacks in May and June may make it harder for him to get to his goal, the likelihood is that he is so close that it is inevitable that he will get the votes he needs.
Moreover, the coordination between Cruz and Kasich will give Trump another talking point that will help him fire up his disaffected and angry followers. After spending the last two weeks ranting about the Republican nomination system being “rigged” against him, expect him to spend the coming days carrying on about the “collusion” between his opponents.
It doesn’t matter that his claim that he is being cheated is yet another flat out lie. In fact, the system is, if anything, geared to help him, as its object is to enable any frontrunner to consolidate support. He has a higher percentage of delegates than votes, not the other way around. But to Trump’s fans, his sense of grievance and their often irrational resentment against party leaders, including principled conservatives that have fought President Obama tooth and nail for more than seven years, is such that they will buy any falsehood that passes his lips. That’s why he might still be able to beat either Cruz or Kasich even if he is forced into a one-on-one matchup. That’s because although their voters may dislike Trump, many of them might prefer him to either Cruz or Kasich.
But though it is far too little and much too late, the Cruz-Kasich deal shouldn’t be dismissed. If it helps, as it should, Cruz beat Trump in Indiana, it will give new life to the stop Trump movement and raise the odds, if only slightly, of a contested convention. The same is true of California. If the two work together to divide up the state in such a manner as to allow them to win more of the 53 individual congressional districts where the delegates will be allocated, it will also make Trump’s push for 1,237 that much more difficult. The prospect of a wipeout of Congressional Republicans if Trump is matched up with Hillary Clinton is still a factor that may convince more GOP voters to vote strategically in order to to get a contested convention.
The problem with the stop Trump movement is that there has never been a single alternative around which the party could rally. That’s still true, and it may, in the end, lead to Trump’s nomination. But by working with rather than against each other, Cruz and Kasich are at last showing that they have their priorities right. Had they done this a month ago, Trump might be in bigger trouble than he is. But for all of his fake cries of foul play, the belated move at least gives Republicans some small hope that they can prevent their party from being hijacked by a populist con man.
