Predicting the demise of the Donald Trump boomlet has not been a smart thing to do this summer. No matter what he said or did Trump seemed to rise in the polls as he benefitted from his celebrity, name-recognition and the anti-politician mood in the country. But it remains to be seen whether the reality star’s testy and blustering performance at the main event debate on Fox News on Thursday night will again show him to be impervious to negative consequences from his behavior. In a forum where a number of the other candidates sounded smart, prepared and in command of the issues, Trump was, well, Trump. It’s possible that will not hurt him with the people who already support him but the contrast with a strong field of candidates who were far more focused and able to speak to tough issues wasn’t flattering to the frontrunner. But perhaps just as important in the long term was a flat performance from the anti-Trump: Jeb Bush. Whether or not the next polls show Trump’s tide ebbing, it won’t be the would-be moderate answer to the populist surge that is likely to benefit. If we can draw any conclusions from a 10-man melee, it may be that the first debate illustrated the depth of the field in which some candidates who have been marginalized by Trumpmania— such as Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee and even Ted Cruz and Ben Carson — shouldn’t be counted out.
It’s difficult to judge Trump’s performance by normal standards since he is not a normal candidate. Any other presidential wannabe that offered the kind of rambling, angry and misleading answers to the sort of tough questions that Trump was confronted with would be considered dead in the water. The real estate mogul didn’t sound good trying to joke his way out of his record of making misogynist statements with a quip about Rosie O’Donnell. Nor did his answers to queries about his lack of proof for his claim that the government of Mexico deliberately sending drug dealers and rapists over the border and his bankruptcies sound much better. Fed an easy one about an Iranian government terrorist conferring with Russian officials, Trump blustered rather than offering an answer that showed knowledge of security policy. Most of all, his refusal to pledge support for the winner of the GOP nomination had to strike most Republicans as evidence of the billionaire’s self-centered and petulant character.
Of course to his fans, Trump can do no wrong. They like his attitude and willingness to fight even if they realize he is no conservative or remotely qualified for the presidency. That could keep him around the 20 percent mark in a large field. But its hard to believe that more uncomfortable performances like the one in Cleveland won’t eventually take the wind out of his sails. In a standoff with the three tough-minded Fox moderators, Trump did not come out on top.
But the putative non-Trump frontrunner didn’t do any better. Jeb Bush wasn’t at the top of his game, giving longwinded answers that did little to bolster his claim to be the adult in the room. Though he finally came up with a decent reply to the Iraq war question and ably defended the Common Core curriculum he has championed, this was not a good night for Bush. Bush won’t necessarily benefit from bad reviews of the Trump performance.
That was especially true because so many of the other candidates were able to muster a lot more passion than the former Florida governor. In particular, Marco Rubio had a number of good moments showing off his trademark thoughtfulness and eloquence. The same can be said for Mike Huckabee who made the most of his few opportunities, especially when given the opportunity to speak out against the Iran nuclear deal.
Chris Christie was another candidate who was on point throughout the evening and scored points in a heated debate with Rand Paul on intelligence collection and terrorism. Paul was the most combative candidate on the stage not hesitating to take shots at Trump, a logical target since he has been hurt as much as anyone by the celebrity candidate’s surprising success. But even he sounded more grounded than Trump.
Just as good was Scott Walker. The Wisconsin governor didn’t get that many chances to shine but he was never at a loss when it was his turn. His ability to speak knowledgeably about foreign policy — a weak point until he started studying up recently — showed that he is improving his game as the campaign progresses.
Playing to a hometown crowd, John Kasich also put on a strong performance. It isn’t clear that he will be able to thrive with his peculiar mix of moderation and conservatism that seems at times vaguely similar to the social justice mantra of many Democrats. But Kasich didn’t embarrass himself.
In a ten-man debate, some of those on stage tended to be ignored for long periods. In particular, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson more or less disappeared for much of the two-hour show. But both responded well when they were finally given a chance to talk at the end of the debate with Carson in particular hitting it out of the park in a humorous closing statement.
In contrast to some of the debates in the 2012 cycle, there was no gotcha moment when a candidate was eliminated. Indeed, despite all of the attention devoted to Trump, the first debate of the season showed that the conventional wisdom about this year’s crop of candidates being stronger than their predecessors four years ago is true. That means that rather than this race quickly morphing into two tiers of candidates with only a couple of genuine contenders, it really is an open election where virtually any of these ten men (as well as Carly Fiorina who not only won the 5pm preliminary debate but had a star moment in the 9pm show when Fox introduced a question on Iran by playing a clip of her strong answer on the issue earlier in the day) could break out and wind up winning.
The bottom line is that the first debate showed that a Trump-Bush final next spring is possible but by no means a certainty. There’s plenty of drama left to unfold before we’ll have any real inkling as to who will be back in Cleveland next summer accepting the GOP presidential nomination.
