Ohio Governor John Kasich gave a strong speech today in New York in which he called upon fellow Republicans to reject what he termed a “path to darkness” that his opponents have led them down during the presidential campaign. In doing so he implicitly blasted both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as “not worthy of the office” of the presidency and cast himself in a Ronald Reagan-like role as the exponent of a sunnier brand of conservative politics. This might go down fairly well in New York and some of the other Northeastern states that will vote in the next few weeks and allow him to finally get some more delegates.
Kasich hasn’t won a single delegate since Ohio voted on March 15 and, in that time, the rationale of his candidacy has seemed more like a fantasy than a realistic scenario. But even if Kasich edges out Cruz for second place in New York in an expected landslide for Trump, the question remains what exactly is Kasich trying to accomplish by continuing what is clearly a quixotic quest for the GOP nomination. Unfortunately, for both Kasich’s small of supporters and the majority of Republicans who still oppose Trump, the answer is that he is more likely to sabotage any hope of stopping the frontrunner than in advancing his own chances for the presidency.
The Kasich argument is simple. He is the most electable of the three remaining GOP candidates. Polls show that he is the only one that leads Hillary Clinton in a head to head matchup. In even the rosiest scenario for the next two months he will arrive in Cleveland far behind Trump and Cruz (at the moment, he still trails Marco Rubio, who dropped out almost a month ago). But he thinks a deadlocked convention will eventually turn to him to lead them to victory in November.
Dream on, Governor Kasich. It’s true a lot of establishment Republicans will be in Cleveland, and they might be open to Kasich if the contest goes several ballots without a winner. But even if Trump and Cruz wind up preventing each other from winning the nomination, most of the delegates there will be their loyalists and will want no part of Kasich, who is identified with the sector of the party most of them despise. If a compromise is required, an establishment favorite won’t be the solution. In other words, the odds of Kasich winning in Cleveland are basically slim and none.
So what is Kasich accomplishing on the campaign trail?
The answer is equally simple. He’s making it far more likely that the only candidate that has even a prayer of catching Trump will be crippled in the upcoming primaries. Cruz needs to steal some delegates in the Northeast states to avoid being seen as a hopeless loser heading into Indiana on May 5, the next crucial contest of strength between the Texas senator and Trump.
We know that Kasich doesn’t consider himself part of a stop Trump movement. But by refusing to coordinate with Cruz in order to prevent the frontrunner from getting to 1,237 delegates before Cleveland, he’s making his open convention scenario impossible. Moreover, despite his implicit condemnation of Trump, he is raising suspicions that his real goal is to be a kingmaker in Cleveland that might put the billionaire over the top.
Perhaps Cruz is just too conservative and too controversial for more Northeast Republicans to support under any circumstances. And Kasich is giving moderate Republicans a candidate around whom they may rally in the next few weeks as they are overwhelmed by Trump. But if their priority is to stop Trump rather than casting symbolic protest votes, Kasich backers are doing their cause a disservice.