In 2008, the Barack Obama campaign harnessed the energy of excited liberals by raking in $500 million in online contributions. While Obama also brought in lots of money from big donors, including those on Wall Street, it was this avalanche of small donations that helped fuel his rise to the presidency. But it’s an open question whether he can duplicate or exceed his 2008 record. His campaign’s goal of raising a record $1 billion seems attainable given the advantages of incumbency. As Politico reports today, it’s far from certain Obama can count on the same passion from both the left and first time voters this time around.
After two and a half years in office, the unrealistic expectations generated by his messianic rhetoric about his presidency were bound to create a letdown. Indeed, anything short of him actually multiplying loaves and fishes would have been a disappointment to Obama’s enraptured followers. Throw in his decision not to bug out of Iraq and Afghanistan, a collapsing economy and rising unemployment, and you have a formula for a smaller, less-excited Democratic base that won’t come through with the same volume of small donations that lifted Obama to victory in 2008.
But rather than merely focus on Obama’s depressed base, we ought to consider whether any of the potential Republican challengers to Obama can come close to his 2008 record.
Mitt Romney is the unchallenged GOP fundraising leader. He has brought in vast sums from the financial industry and other traditional Republican strongholds. The newest entry into the race, Jon Huntsman, also seems ready to try the same route. His insider status and white bread appeal to traditional country club GOP elites may smooth the way for big buck donations. But neither Romney nor Huntsman seem capable of mobilizing a vast army of small donors because their “moderate” stands on the issues simply don’t excite grass roots Republicans.
The only Republican who seems to be in a position to do that is Michele Bachmann. Bachmann, whose political stock is rising in the aftermath of her smashing performance in the New Hampshire GOP presidential debate last week, can count on the backing of an enthusiastic core of Tea Party activists and conservative Christians. Though her campaign is not as sophisticated as Obama’s, she has already proved able to raise large sums of money in small donations on the Internet in relatively short periods of time.
Small donors may not have actually won the 2008 election for Obama, but those who dismiss the impact of this factor are missing the point. Having the ability to generate enormous sums via Internet appeals not only keeps a campaign in cash, it is a measure of the enthusiasm and energy essential for victory once the primaries start. We have months to go before the votes are counted, but those who think a “mainstream” GOP candidate like Romney or Huntsman will inevitably beat an activist type like Bachmann are underestimating how small donors and the related activism they generate can transform an election.
