A week ago it seemed as if the GOP race might already be over. If Donald Trump won Iowa and then headed to New Hampshire for another win, there was a real possibility as if he would run the table and win the GOP presidential race in a cakewalk. That didn’t happen. Ted Cruz won Iowa despite the downturn in his poll numbers the last weeks as Trump did his best to trash the Texas senator. But that wasn’t the only headline that will come out of Iowa’s Republican contest. Marco Rubio came out of nowhere in the last week and went from a distant third — he was at only 11 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of Iowa polls as late as January 22 — to nearly catching Trump for second with 23 percent to the Donald’s 24 percent with 99 percent of the votes counted. That debunks two of the prevailing narratives that were anticipated to come out of Iowa: a) That Trump was already the inevitable nominee or b) That it was a two-man race between Trump and Cruz. Iowa didn’t decide anything, but the one thing we now know is that the GOP has a three-man race and that any one of them may wind up the winner.

Rubio’s post-caucus speech in which he spoke as if he was declaring victory rather than claiming third place was a classic example of how the expectations game can alter our perception of an election outcome. By doing better than expected, Rubio gave himself some momentum heading into New Hampshire and can claim with some justice that he is the only Republican not named Trump or Cruz who has any hope of mounting a national campaign and winning the nomination. He has to hope centrist conservatives realize that and rally to him in the coming weeks.

With John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie all close to him in the New Hampshire polls, Rubio desperately needs to convince voters in the Granite State that they need to get behind him rather than the other so-called moderates. Though New Hampshire generally reverses the verdict of Iowa, Rubio’s strong showing was exactly what he needed if he is going to force the others out in time to unite the mainstream of the party. But if he fails to finish ahead of all of them — especially Bush who flopped in Iowa but has enough money to keep attacking Rubio for as long as he wants — his good night in Iowa will mean nothing. Iowa revived the notion that there are three lanes in the GOP race and that Rubio could be the moderate champion with a shot at defeating the religious conservative (Cruz) and outsider vote (Trump) factions. But New Hampshire will be a crucial test for him.

Trump will spin Iowa as a state that Cruz was always going to win because of his organizational edge and the predominance of Christian conservative voters. But his weak second place showing that left him barely ahead of Rubio takes a little of the shine off of the Trump juggernaut that has always hinged on the notion that he is a “winner” facing off against a bunch of losers. It turns out that Trump’s decision to boycott last week’s Fox News debate because of his demeaning feud with Megyn Kelly may have hurt him. And the endorsement of Sarah Palin that was supposed to ensure the support of evangelicals didn’t make that much of a difference or enable him to prove the polls — all of which predicted his victory — right.

Trump is way ahead in New Hampshire and most of the rest of the states that have been polled. But his inability to put away Cruz and the resurgence of Rubio means those numbers are no guarantee of future success. He shouldn’t be underestimated and may yet win the nomination. But Iowa was a chance for him to seize control of the Republican Party. Those factions that were starting to talk about making their peace with him as their leader will now realize that they were too quick to wave the white flag in the face of a non-conservative populist that is the ultimate Republican in name only (RINO).

As for Cruz, this was the win he desperately needed. Had he lost, his chances would have been written off. He can now go to New Hampshire with nothing to lose and hope for a chance at second place before heading south here he thinks he has a chance to catch Trump.

Eight days from now, the story could be very different if Trump surges and the other moderates running catch Rubio. But for now, the Republicans are back to thinking that there is a three-lane scrum for the nomination that any one of the trio at the top could wind up winning.