Tarek Heggy is an Egyptian businessman and intellectual, perhaps the most prolific liberal writer in the Arab world. He is a no-holds-barred advocate of political and economic freedom, delivering, as Brookings Institution senior fellow Shibley Telhami has put it, a “refreshing message of self-reliance that challenges the prevailing sense that regional ills are largely made abroad.”

But currently Heggy, for a change, is broadcasting a message of dire alarm at an impending regional catastrophe that, if not made abroad, would be catalyzed from abroad. His worry? The likely consequences of an American flight from Iraq.

Responding by email to a recent article in Haaretz, Heggy writes:

The core message of this article is that a premature American withdrawal from Iraq will lead to the toppling of the current regime in Jordan. Is that an exaggeration? Certainly not. It is actually an understatement. I personally believe that if failing to kill Osama bin Laden and al Molla Omar was the first step of the Jihadi Islam towards its goal, the lousy job in Iraq was the second step and a premature American withdrawal from Iraq will be the third and semi-final step JUST before the finale which will be the spread of both: Sunni Radical Islamism & The New Persian Empire (which will equally represent another facet of radical Islam). I predict that if such a premature American withdrawal from Iraq takes place in 2009, before 2015 Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Afghanistan & Pakistan (at least) will be in the hands of radical Islamists with at least two nuclear powers among these countries.

Any prognostication on this scale is of course wildly speculative. But can anyone deny that the scenario Heggy paints is at least plausible? Throughout the region, governments and thinkers who opposed our going to Iraq now oppose any hasty departure, for reasons along the lines of Heggy’s fears.

This is what is scandalously irresponsible about the current position of the congressional Democrats. If they believe that Heggy’s scenario is wrong, they owe it to us to explain why. If they have some other program for averting this scenario, it is high time for them to unveil it. Instead they march on, as if Bush and “the war” are the only threats we face. Theirs is truly a shameful performance.