How worried should we be by reports, such as this one, that the Taliban continue to terrorize residents of Marjah, the town that was “liberated” by the marines back in February? Moderately worried — but hardly panicking.
The Taliban were smart enough to avoid an all-out fight for Marjah of the kind that Islamic insurgents staged in Iraq to hold on to Fallujah. If they had fought harder, the Taliban could have inflicted more casualties on the marines but would have lost in the end. Knowing that, they decided to adopt the smarter guerrilla tactic of lying low during the initial offensive. Now they reemerge in the dark of night to exert their influence but, for the most part, avoid open clashes with the marines, which they know they would lose. The New York Times quotes one local farmer as saying: “The Taliban are everywhere, they are like scorpions under every stone, and they are stinging all those who get assistance or help the government and the Americans.”
It should still be possible for U.S. and Afghan forces to root out these scorpions over time — but only if two conditions prevail. First, the security forces have to be patient; the population’s confidence cannot be won overnight. Second, the security forces must install a government that wins the people’s trust. Both conditions are hard to meet — the first because of President Obama’s self-imposed deadline for withdrawing our troops beginning next summer and the second because of the rottenness of the Karzai regime. Bringing in Afghan officials or security personnel who are too closely associated with a corrupt central regime will only intensify recruiting for the Taliban. The key to victory is to install local leaders who govern in a fair and enlightened manner. My guess is that this hasn’t happened yet in Marjah, and that is the root cause of the problems.
But better governance is hardly an impossible objective, especially at the local level. It will have to be the focus of American efforts not only in Marjah but, on a much bigger scale, in Kandahar, which is slated to be the next city to be liberated from the Taliban’s grip.
