As I watch the war in Gaza from afar, I have been reading, for completely unrelated purposes, Jonathan Spence’s “memoir” of Chinese Emperor K’ang-hsi (r. 1661-1722). K’ang-hsi was not much impressed by the Seven Military Classics of ancient China, the most famous of which is Sun-tzu’s The Art of War. Those books lay out elaborate stratagems designed to defeat the enemy, sometimes without firing a shot. “I told my officials once that if you followed these books, you’d never win a battle . . . ” the emperor wrote. “All one needs is an inflexible will and careful planning.”
That struck me as spot on. Inflexible will and careful planning are indeed the sine qua non for military success. Does Israel have what it takes? I hope so, but I have my doubts. Certainly Ehud Olmert did not display either of those qualities the last time he launched a war-against Hezbollah in 2006. This time around there seems to have been better planning, catching Hamas off-guard initially. But it’s much easier to start a war than to end one. Has Israel thought through how this war will end? Does it have the will to see the war through to a successful conclusion?
At this point it seems that Olmert and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, plan to keep launching air strikes for an undetermined period and then announce a cease fire, hoping to avoid sending Israeli troops into tough fighting in Gaza City. If so that will cause some degradation to Hamas’s capabilities but only on a very limited scale. Hamas will be able to bounce back easily enough as Hezbollah bounced back after the 2006 war.
As Israeli historian Benny Morris noted in the New York Times yesterday: “According to Israeli intelligence estimates, Hezbollah now has an arsenal of 30,000 to 40,000 Russian-made rockets, supplied by Syria and Iran – twice the number it possessed in 2006. Some of the rockets can reach Tel Aviv and Dimona, where Israel’s nuclear production facility is located.”
True, Hezbollah has not launched any attacks since 2006, so there is some deterrence effect from Israel’s military operations. But Hezbollah was widely seen as the victor in its confrontation with Israel because the Israeli attacks did not do it fatal damage. The same is likely to happen with Hamas because-and here is the fundamental problem-the Israeli public lacks the will to launch a protracted ground war to eliminate Hamas. That would likely require “re-occupying” Gaza, something that is anathema to most Israeli voters, and understandably so.
Don’t get me wrong. I am not at all opposed to the current Israeli action. In fact Israel had no choice but to strike back when it was on the receiving end of Hamas rockets. And the losses it is now inflicting on Hamas are a good thing. All I am saying is that I doubt the Olmert government has the “inflexible will and careful planning” needed to win a lasting victory against the terrorists.
