In recent weeks it has been commonplace to hear that the bottom-up success that coalition forces have been enjoying in Iraq is leading to a “soft partition” of the country along the lines envisioned by the likes of Joe Biden: a Kurdish north, a Sunni west, and a Shiite south. Some have even suggested that we should stand aside and let this ethnic sorting out occur, especially in Baghdad.

The reality is far messier and does not comport with the schemes hatched in Washington conference rooms.

The New York Times reports on the findings of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society, which has been studying migration patterns. The Red Crescent finds that while “Sunnis generally have been moving north and west, Shiites south, and Christians to the far north,” the picture is far murkier in the populous center of the country. The Times states that

the new figures show that the migration is not neatly dividing Baghdad along the Tigris, separating Sunnis who live predominantly on the west bank from Shiites, who live predominantly on the east. Instead, some Sunnis are moving to the predominantly Shiite side of the river, into neighborhoods that are relatively secular, mixed, and where services are better, according to Red Crescent staff.

In short, while sectarian polarization has been increasing in recent years, it is not the case that all Iraqis implacably hate all those who belong to a different sect. In fact, the Times says, “the patterns suggest that despite the ethnic and sectarian animosity that has gripped the country, at least some Iraqis would rather continue to live in mixed communities.”

My bet is that many more would make that choice if they felt secure living alongside neighbors of different backgrounds, as they did only a few years ago. That is what the surge is designed to accomplish.