Mike O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, one of the nation’s fairest and most incisive military analysts, has an important op-ed in the New York Times, reporting on progress he saw in the Afghan National Security Forces during a recent visit to Helmand Province. The ANSF have been growing in size but numerical strength is not always a good indicator of capability; in fact, overly rapid growth can create a low-quality force that will fold at the first sign of trouble. That’s what happened in Iraq during the early years. But O’Hanlon writes that is not what is happening today in Helmand:

During my travels, several Marine officers who also had experience in Iraq told me that Afghan police officers and soldiers were better fighters than their Iraqi counterparts. Routinely, in towns like Musa Qala that are still tense, Afghans provide half the personnel on most foot patrols — and I was told that they do not shrink from fighting when they run into trouble.

It should be added that the army is further along than the police, but both forces are much more impressive than they were just a few years ago. Does this mean that the U.S. can wash it’s hands of Afghanistan? Nope. O’Hanlon notes:

An American commander told me that in his estimation, after an area is first cleared of the Taliban, NATO can substantially draw down its forces there 24 to 30 months later. That gives NATO enough time to recruit and train Afghan Army and police units, allows Afghan citizens to gain confidence that the Taliban is not coming back and gives the civilian government a chance to get off the ground. The time frame implies significantly reduced NATO forces in southern Afghanistan by next year.

I would be nervous about even reducing NATO forces significantly next year. But next year is better than this summer. Let’s hope that President Obama doesn’t waver in his determination to win the war in Afghanistan. As O’Hanlon shows, we are making good progress but we have to stick with it for a few more years.