George W. Bush had his debacle in Iraq, but by the time he left office in 2009, the situation was vastly improved thanks to the success of the “surge,” which he had bravely implemented in the face of nearly universal opposition. Barack Obama has his ongoing debacle in Syria — 250,000 dead and counting; millions of refugees; ISIS, Hezbollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the al-Nusra Front (al-Qaeda), and other terrorist groups expanding their power — and there is no chance of the situation stabilizing before he leaves office a year from now.
The latest debacle occurred in Geneva yesterday where the U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura suspended a third round of peace talks after all of two days. Two days! This humiliating failure was utterly, completely predictable. The only mystery is why President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry thought there was any chance of successful negotiations.
The administration has refused to do enough to support moderate anti-regime fighters. It has refused to institute a no-fly zone or safe zones. It has done nothing to stop Russia and Iran from intervening massively and decisively in favor of the Assad regime. Under those conditions, there is no hope of peace talks succeeding unless the opposition is willing to unconditionally surrender — and that may very well be what Obama and Kerry want.
The administration is exerting more pressure on the Syrian opposition than on the Syrian government. The administration has basically accepted the Moscow/Tehran position that Bashar Assad should be allowed to remain in power indefinitely and that the Assad regime is not even obligated to lift its hunger siege of rebel-held cities for talks to begin. When the Syrian opposition balked at this giveaway to Assad and his patrons, John Kerry threatened the opposition with an end to all U.S. aid. This continues the administration’s policy of being tougher with American allies (such as Israel) than America’s enemies such as Russia and Iran.
If the administration wants to end the Syrian civil war, which has allowed ISIS to establish its own state within a state, it will need to do more to support the opposition and to counter the Iranian/Russian support for Assad. But all signs indicate that the administration has no desire to do that. Obama appears content to leave Assad free to commit war crimes against civilians — his way of consolidating power — while the U.S. continues its desultory bombing of ISIS areas. The president seems not to understand that as long as Assad continues in power, it will be impossible to defeat ISIS, which will continue to draw the support of aggrieved Sunnis.
Under the circumstances, it is hard to disagree with Walter Russell Mead, who writes: “Very few issues this consequential have been this poorly handled by an American government.”
