The world is watching the geopolitical tectonic plates shift as the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte says that he is abandoning his country’s longtime alliance with the United States in favor of closer ties with China. “In this venue, your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States,” he told his Chinese hosts this week during a visit to Beijing.

Philippine officials are claiming that there is less to Duterte’s rhetoric than meets the eye. But Duterte gives every indication of being serious—this is hardly the first time he has unleashed violently anti-American rhetoric. This is the same man who not long ago called President Obama a “son of a whore.”

Duterte is coming under criticism on the home front for his move. Former Foreign Minister Albert Del Rosario, who served under Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, blasted his realignment toward China, calling it a “national tragedy.”

“The declared shift in foreign policy casting aside a long-time reliable ally to hastily embrace an aggressive neighbor that vehemently rejects international law is both unwise and incomprehensible,” he warned.

That is certainly my view as well. But not everyone agrees. Duterte’s shift received support in an unexpected quarter. Ian Bremmer, head of the consultancy Eurasia Group, tweeted: “Is Philippines going to win v China on S China Sea? No. Sensible for Duterte to fold before others in region & profit accordingly? Yep.”

It’s true that the Philippines stands to profit in the short term from Duterte’s volte-face. During his visit, China announced loans and trade deals worth $24 billion. But is Duterte really making a smart long-term bet? Only if you think that appeasement of China will prove to be a successful strategy.

Count me as skeptical. China has already tried to claim for itself the whole of the South China Sea–an area through which more than $5 trillion of trade travels every year, and that is rich in all sorts of natural resources, from fisheries to oil. By one estimate, “the South China Sea holds proven oil reserves of at least seven billion barrels and an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.” The Philippines, along with other states, are entitled to their fair share of this bounty, but if China succeeds in asserting its dubious sovereignty, its neighbors will be lucky to get crumbs from the table.

And this is only the beginning of the price the Philippines is likely to pay if it volunteers to become a tributary state of the Celestial Empire. The Philippines is likely to see its freedom eroded, both at home and abroad, as China makes escalating demands. That may very well be what Duterte has in mind: He has all the makings of another Ferdinand Marcos, another president who was freely elected but then imposed a dictatorship via martial law. Duterte is already eroding his country’s law and order by setting loose death squads to kill at least 1,900 people. He may well be maneuvering to make himself president-for-life—something that he knows the U.S. would not support but that China would happily back.

Rather than kowtow to Beijing, the Philippines would be better advised to continue its historic alliance with the United States, a country with which it shares a language and considerable cultural affinity.

Ian Bremmer is right that the Philippines by itself could not stand up to China. But it wouldn’t have to do so by itself. The United States is already providing considerable military aid. Beyond that, the Philippines has been part of an informal network of China’s neighbors—including Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, South Korea, and, critically, India–all acting in concert with the United States to contain Chinese expansionism. If other countries decide to follow Duterte’s example, unfortunately, any attempt to limit the growth of Chinese power would collapse, and all of its neighbors would be prey to the high-handed demands of Beijing. That would be bad for the Philippines and bad for the region.

China is a powerful economic engine, and its rise can spread prosperity beyond its shores. But if it is tempted to engage in military adventurism, the result could be a conflagration that nobody wants. It is much better and much safer to show China that its neighbors won’t stand for it imposing its will at gunpoint. That message is now being attenuated by Duterte’s emotional outburst.