Terrorist attacks in Iraq are still at their lowest level since 2003 but there has been a worrisome uptick recently in mass-casualty bombings, many of them undertaken by suicide bombers — a favorite tactic of al Qaeda in Iraq. This Wall Street Journal article suggests that part of the explanation is due to the pullout of American troops from most Iraqi cities, the continuing deficiencies of Iraqi security forces, the long-term tensions between the Shiite government and the largely Sunni Sons of Iraq, and the new problems created by a drop in oil prices which have forced the Iraqi government to slash spending on employment programs designed to keep young men from making money by planting bombs.

Those are all valid reasons, but the Washington Post today offers another partial explanation: “After a long hiatus, the Syrian pipeline operated by the organization al-Qaeda in Iraq is back in business.”

This news comes at an awkward time for the Obama administration, which is set on wooing Syria away from its connections to Iran and various terrorist networks. In fact the Post notes, “On Wednesday,
acting Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey D. Feltman and National Security Council official Daniel Shapiro arrived in Syria for their second visit since Barack Obama’s inauguration as president.”

No doubt many in the U.S. government will tell themselves that Syrian complicity in al Qaeda infiltration of Iraq is all the more reason we need to reach out to Bashar Assad. Some will even suggest the
Syrian president is unaware of activities undertaken by his own underlings. The Washington Post contains this quote:

“What we think right now is that we just don’t know how much their senior leaders know about the foreign fighter network,” said the senior U.S. military official, who discussed intelligence matters last week on the condition of anonymity. “As you can imagine . . . if they knew, it’s not something they would be talking about.”

“But we do think that the knowledge of these networks exists at least within the Syrian intelligence community,” he said. “What level, if it’s low or high up, we just don’t have a good gauge on.”

I’ve never understood these kinds of “the emperor doesn’t know” explanations. If it’s true that Assad doesn’t know what’s going on in his own government, then he is a hapless figurehead and there is no point in reaching out to him. If he does know (which is much more likely), then he is sending a signal that he is not really interested in peace and co-existence — or else that his price for doing a deal will be prohibitively high. In either case, this is bad news not only for the future of Iraq but also for one of the Obama administration’s most prized initiatives.