If these reports are accurate, General David Petraeus has recommended, and Secretary of Defense Bob Gates has adopted, a cautious approach toward troop draw-downs in Iraq. They apparently want to wait until early next year to cut the overall U.S. force from 15 brigades to 14, with one brigade initially scheduled for Iraq to be sent to Afghanistan instead. That they’re not calling for a more substantial reduction will disappoint opponents of the war effort and even some of its supporters but that strikes me as a prudent course to follow.

There is no disputing the remarkable gains of the past 18 months, with violence across Iraq down by some 80%. Just a few days ago, U.S. troops turned over Anbar Province to Iraqi control amid declarations by some stateside—but not by commanders on the ground—that “victory” has been achieved. There is no question that victory looks infinitely more achievable now than it did a couple of years ago, but we’re still not there yet. Lots of risks remain, with provincial elections probably coming at the end of the year and volatile situations such as the future of Kirkuk still unresolved.

Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has vastly improved his own reputation by taking on Shiite militias in Basra and Sadr City but he now may be getting over-confident. There is a danger, as this Guardian article points out, that he may return to his sectarian roots. U.S. officials are especially worried, and rightly so, by indications that Maliki may be targeting the Sons of Iraq, the mostly Sunni force which has done so much to contribute to the growing sense of security. Meanwhile, the hard-line Shiite Special Groups have been put on the defensive but, as this report notes, they can stage a comeback with Iranian support.

Keeping a sizable U.S. force in Iraq for as long as American and Iraqi politics allows it is an essential hedge against a multitude of dangerous scenarios and the best way to preserve the hard-won gains of the surge.