News that a 38-year old U.S. Marine Staff Sergeant had raped a 14-year old Okinawa girl over the weekend ripped open barely healed wounds from the last time such a tragic crime took place. Back then, in 1995, three Marines were charged with raping a 12-year old, and the resulting political earthquake led directly to decisions to relocate key U.S. bases, change the status of forces agreement, and ultimately consider removing Marines from the island. Since then, local politics has bogged down agreements to lessen the burden of the U.S. military presence on the Okinawan people, but the end goal has long been clear: moving almost all Marines to Guam by the middle of the next decade.

Now, however, all those timelines, and agreements, are at risk. The Marine has been handed over to Japanese authorities, but the political damage is just beginning. Prime Minister Fukuda called the rape “unforgivable” and Foreign Minister Komura was quoted to the effect that the Japanese people have “had enough” of suffering crimes at the hands of American troops. U.S. officials have been apologizing, but the ball really remains in the court of Japanese public opinion. Okinawan activists will seize on this as a way to get the Marines off the island more quickly than has been agreed, and if not handled deftly, the State Department may find itself bailing water out of a sinking rowboat. One key problem: Guam isn’t nearly ready for the 8,000 Marines and roughly 9,000 dependents who would be deposited there. n the other hand, all the plans for shifting bases within Japan, an unsatisfactory solution for the long term in Japanese eyes, are still wallowing in political bickering.

The real problem, of course, is what effect this will have on trust and good-feeling between Japan and America. Knocking U.S.-Japan ties off their stride is just what Pyongyang would like to see, and even Beijing might be happy with some tension between the allies–just enough to divert our energies more into alliance management and less into strategic planning for Asia’s future.