Some nuclear deals, in hindsight, look prescient. Many conservatives warned against Ronald Reagan’s outreach to Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev but, in hindsight, Gorbachev was sincere in his desire to reduce the nuclear threat. And while many contemporaries criticized Reagan’s support for a military build-up in Europe as well as ‘fanciful’ schemes like the Star Wars anti-ballistic missile system, today Reagan looks prescient: he rebuilt leverage and used it to maximum effect.
History has not looked as kindly on subsequent arms accords. The 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea began to unravel almost as soon as it was implemented. It is now apparent that Russia has cheated on more recent arms accords; disturbingly, the State Department may have lied about it. Despite partisan affirmation for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it already looks shaky: Both President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry seemed to recognize from the start that they could not defend their agreement on its merits or content, and so sought to win approval with procedural somersaults rather than treat it as a treaty. In the first months of the agreement, Iran has already violated provisions regarding the import of weaponry and, arguably, the firing of ballistic missiles which, contrary to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s claims, violate the accord by explicitly suggesting through painted-on slogans that their aims is to eradicate Israel, thereby exposing the real intent of Iran’s missile program. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to say they will refuse any inspections of suspect nuclear sites. The Obama administration and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for their part, have sidestepped that issue by refusing to test the right to access, which the nuclear deal supposedly grants.
One of the biggest loopholes, however, is the problem of off-site research. Iranian nuclear and missile scientists are ever-present at North Korean nuclear and missile tests. The State Department can ignore that problem, but it seems to be getting worse and it’s not just limited to what Iran might do in North Korea.
According to Defense News:
The Namibian government has confirmed that North Korea built an arms and ammunition factory in the African country and is in the process of executing other contracts for the construction of the country’s first military academy, military barracks and a new headquarters for the Ministry of Defense (MoD). The confirmation came a week after the government refuted the recent United Nations Panel of Experts (PoE), which found that Pyongyang has continuously violated UN Security Council sanctions imposed to protest its nuclear weapons program by providing military weapons, training and embarking on military-related construction projects in African countries, including Uganda and Namibia.
That’s North Korea, but there’s a pattern here with Iran as well. A few years ago, I analyzed Iran’s extensive outreach into Africa. A few patterns emerged: Iran targeted its assistance to African states which sat as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council or in the IAEA Board of Governors. In effect, Tehran sought to buy their votes. Iran also provided aid in exchange for logistical bases or services, for example, in Djibouti, Sudan, or Senegal. Finally, a pattern existed — too extensive to be coincidental — in which Iranian authorities reached out to states which had significant uranium resources and which were building the facilities to bring those to market. Hence, Iran-Namibia relations were growing steadily.
That Namibia had acknowledged its relationship is troubling. That this is a tip of the iceberg both in Namibia’s foreign relations and sub-Saharan Africa’s willingness to partner with Iran and North Korea is more troubling. But, the most distressing aspect of the story is that U.S. authorities prefer to look the other way, even as Iran and North Korea’s offsite research, acquisition, and manufacturing undercut the efficacy of non-proliferation agreements and other safeguards.
