Ramin Ahmadi, co-founder of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, makes a convincing case in Forbes that no matter what happens in Iran at this point, the Islamic Republic regime will never be the same again.

The elite clergy are up in arms about these developments. Secret negotiations are under way to make face-saving deals for both sides, but it may be a little too late for a compromise. There are reports of the armed forces firing on student protesters and at least one death. People are back on their rooftops screaming, “God is great,” along with anti-regime slogans reminding everyone old enough of the 1979 revolution. Ahmadinejad supporters are calling for the arrest of former presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammed Khatami, accusing them of treason. Returning the genie to the bottle looks increasingly difficult.

There are at least two possible outcomes for the current crisis. If the Ahmadinejad’s coup is successful, we will witness another post-1968 Prague spring, crushing the reform movement and including a military attempt at “normalizing” society. Mousavi will be forced to appear on television and play the role of an Iranian Dubcek, expressing regrets and calling on people to stop resisting the military regime.

If this coup fails, on the other hand, Tehran may experience the Prague spring of 1989, and the country will be wide open to the possibility of substantial reforms and liberalization, well beyond what was seen in the Khatami era. In either case, the Islamic Republic we have known for the last three decades is gone.