Andrew Sullivan said the other day what a lot of war-weary people must be thinking: “The world and the West can live, after all, with a deterred and contained nuclear Iran.” Jeffrey Goldberg offered a measured counter-argument, but I’d like to put the issue a little more bluntly.

Consider this illustrative exchange: the commander of the IRGC two days ago threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Here is the U.S. position:

Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff said during a press conference [in June] at the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain: “No one will close the Strait of Hormuz. They are not going to close it because they will not be allowed to.”

What will Vice Admiral Cosgriff be able to say when Iran has nuclear weapons?