Yaacov Katz has an analysis in the Jerusalem Post about the Israeli military’s war planning for Gaza, and comments that
Israel has its own reasons for a cease-fire. First there is a desire to provide the residents of the Gaza-belt communities with a little peace and quiet after almost a decade of daily rocket attacks.
But more important is to be able to allow the IDF to focus on this summer’s real threat: Iran.
With Israel and Syria holding peace talks, the chances that Damascus would go to war with Israel have dramatically dropped. President Bashar Assad ruled out Syrian participation in such a war in an interview he gave last week.
With Syria already on the sidelines, a cease-fire in Gaza could also take Hamas out of the equation and allow the defense establishment to give its attention to Iran, which by the end of the year is expected to master nuclear technology.
It would be dispiriting although not implausible if Israeli officials were actually thinking along these lines, with each terror group and regime on Israel’s borders separated neatly into its own category. The central military problem today for Israel is that Tehran has done an efficient job of co-opting the groups (Hamas and Hezbollah) and regime (Syria) which stand most capable of fighting Israel. This war happens daily in and around the Gaza Strip, and has the potential to expand, through Hezbollah and Syrian rockets, to all of Israel.
A discrete attack on Iran may not be possible given the current state of affairs, even if there is a preexisting cease fire in Gaza and a peace process with Syria. Likewise, a discrete war against Hamas may not be possible given the existence of Hezbollah and Syria on Israel’s borders. Properly understood, Israel is facing a war against one enemy whose power has been extended to many locations.