Republicans are fortunate. Whenever they find themselves in positions of advantage amid a crisis or controversy that reflects poorly on Democrats, the press becomes consumed with concern for the GOP’s well-being. In these moments of Democratic misfortune, political analysts in media can often be heard fretting over the prospect of Republican “overreach.” They warn that those in the GOP should not “overplay their hand,” and observe that the scandals engulfing their opposition are subordinate to the fact that Republicans have an unattractive tendency to “pounce” on the news. Democrats don’t have the luxury of such faithful and consistent mentorship, which is unfortunate for them. They’re going to need it. With Republicans stumbling into one self-set trap after another, and their opponents enjoying the spoils, the Trump era’s newly empowered Democrats already seem tempted to mistake their good fortune for a mandate.
Patient zero in this particular strain of narcissism took the oath of office in New Jersey on Tuesday. Governor Phil Murphy succeeded Chris Christie, the most unpopular governor in the nation, to take the reins of what is once again a dark blue state. The new governor would be well served by acting as an antidote to the traits that once endeared his predecessor to the Garden State’s voters but which fast became grating. Murphy might govern with modesty, observing that his party is only just beginning to recover from the decimation of the Obama years. He might be cautious and prudent and look more toward his state’s political and fiscal health than the vigor of his political career. He might defer to the will of the voters even if that diverges from his particular preferences or the consensus of his party’s activist base. Apparently, none of that is going to happen.
Murphy took the oath of office on John F. Kennedy’s Bible, which he got on loan from the department of ham-fisted political analogies. This was not the first sign that the new governor intends to make himself into a national figure. He has advertised that the early days of his administration will be dedicated to pursuing every liberal flight of fancy that has captured the hearts of the blogosphere over the last few years.
“If Murphy has his way,” the Washington Post’s Dave Weigel previewed, “New Jersey will become a proving ground for every liberal policy idea coming into fashion, from legalized marijuana to a $15 minimum wage, from a ‘millionaire’s tax’ to a virtual bill of rights for undocumented immigrants.” What’s more, the governor plans to add “automatic voter registration” and longer early-voting periods to his list of priorities, reducing such modest obstacles to participating in the civic process as knowing how to register to vote and on what day the Constitution dictates elections should be held.
Republicans tend to be as fatalistic about automatic voter registration as Democrats are about gerrymandering. Nothing guarantees either of the two major parties election victories in perpetuity; one big wave can overcome most efforts to game the system. But Republicans are right to worry about the effect of one-party rule. If higher taxes and increased costs of doing business have the effect of accelerating the flight of the tax base from New Jersey, as they reliably do, surely Democrats in Trenton will appeal to their surest source of relief: increasing sales, gasoline, and property taxes. Thus, the cycle self-perpetuates, but that which is unsustainable will not go on forever. Murphy intends to use the cover of a roaring economy to abandon not just austere measures like pension reform but basic fiscal prudence. One day, however, the bill will come due.
Ultimately, what Democrats should be most cautious about is the temptation to govern as anti-Trumps. Implementing protections for illegal immigrants—including state-issued identification, in-state college tuition, and driver’s licenses—could put the state’s federal funding in jeopardy and negatively impact the state’s legal residents. Setting marijuana policy that conflicts with the Department of Justice might be popular with New Jersey’s voters, but it conscripts average citizens into a proxy war between blue Trenton and red Washington D.C. Picking fights with the administration for its own stake would satisfy the party’s base voters and raise the governor’s profile, but the human costs will be real.
Democrats in the Trump era would be best served by demonstrating that they can govern as competent, dispassionate stewards of the public good. Unfortunately for residents of the Garden State, they are about to be the subjects of a great experiment. According to Weigel, Murphy intends to make the state into a “progressive beacon,” rather than just a sustainable place to live and work. If he were a Republican, Murphy would have been told by now that he runs the risk of overreaching. Unfortunately for Murphy, the press and the pundit class just isn’t invested enough in Democrats’ political fortunes to offer that kind of well-meaning advice.
