The modern presidential primary process is usually a cathartic event—a purgative and therapeutic method for airing intramural grievances, testing relative factional strength, and gauging the appeal of competing programs. Rarely do parties emerge weaker at the end of this process than they were at the beginning of it. But in 2016, from the Republican National Committee to Donald Trump to anti-Trump conservatives, one trait links them all: recalcitrance. As such, the divisions exposed by the primary process cannot and will not be resolved anytime soon.
Late Thursday night at a quadrennial meeting of the Republican Party’s rules committee, efforts to unbind convention delegates from the results of their state’s primaries or caucuses and give guilt-addled delegates a way to satisfy their contentious objections to Trump died humiliating deaths. Only 12 of 112 delegates stood up in favor of continuing debate on the so-called “conscience clause.” A final vote on the motion was defeated by a voice vote. Americans will never know who stood against that motion; just as the Republican Party wanted. With that, Donald Trump’s nomination was secured.
Even cautious independent analyses pegged the number of delegates who might have supported “unbinding” at a fair higher level. That support simply melted away in the hours before the committee voted late last night under the withering pressure of the Republican National Committee. Even delegates who are vocal critics of Trump and who opposed him in the primaries stood for his nomination. For them, it was always party first, and the RNC had apparently determined that anti-Trump efforts represent an attack on the very foundations of the party’s institutional legitimacy.
Though that reality might be unsatisfying for anti-Trump conservatives, it is revelatory. Rules Committee members stood less in support for Trump than they did in support for the existing state of affairs. Even the most modest of proposed rules changes was rejected. There will be no institutional reform resulting from this absurd, rule-breaking year. That is a problem. An organization with a stated mission of “winning elections” that would rather sacrifice that mission in favor of a comfortable status quo, no matter how suboptimal it may be, cannot long justify its existence.
“This angst isn’t going to go away because we paper over it with rules,” said vocal anti-Trump Senator Mike Lee at the close of the fruitless committee meeting. Hours later, team Trump proved him right. “We crushed them,” declared Trump campaign chairman and advisor to ruthless dictators everywhere, Paul Manafort. “Never Trump is never more. They’re just gone.” The wish seems to have fathered the thought here, but this is part of a familiar pattern of behavior. Donald Trump’s campaign is far more comfortable re-litigating the victories of the primary campaign than its officials are in trying to turn around an objectively failing general election strategy.
Rather than appeal to on-the-fence conservatives and persuadable swing voters, the Trump campaign’s surrogates are contented to issue ultimatums and to attack the character of their fellow party members who do not stand with them. But very soon, Trump and his allies will have to accept the fact that they need reluctant Republicans more than reluctant Republicans need them. It’s fitting that the RNC awoke on Friday to another series of key swing state polls showing Trump in the high-to-mid-30s. With a few exceptions that prove the rule, this has been the story of 2016: Clinton is a gravely wounded candidate who could defeat only one guy, and that guy will be the GOP nominee. Even if Republicans were united behind Trump, it would be an uphill battle for the nominee. Without them, Trump’s unfavorability ratings across key demographics put the White House out of reach.
Soon, the Trump campaign will engage in a charm offensive to win over reluctant Republicans. Indeed, the selection of Mike Pence to serve as Trump’s vice presidential nominee may be an ill-conceived nod in that direction, but that effort will necessarily become more overt in the coming weeks. If there is one thing Trump has demonstrated over the course of the last year, it’s that he knows how to read a poll.
The GOP primary will never truly end; at least, not this year. The party’s nominee is too resistant to change and too prone to antagonize his allies. The party he now leads is too protective of the status quo and desperate to avoid even the most cosmetic of reforms. The GOP’s alienated conservatives are too committed to principles and, encountering no inclination toward magnanimity on the part of their vanquishers, are more inclined toward resistance than surrender. The primaries may be over, but they haven’t ended.