The Trump administration’s worldview was always inherently contradictory. Some ranking Trump administration officials want to correct for what they see as the Obama administration’s recklessly conciliatory approach toward bilateral relations with the Islamic Republic. Some of those same Iran hawks are also, however, doves when it comes to Russia. They see Obama’s approach to relations with Moscow as needlessly hostile and view the Kremlin as a potential partner in the global war against Islamist terrorism. Those views are in conflict; Iran and Russia are functionally allied. The Trump administration’s contradictions were bound to catch up with them eventually, and it seems that eventually is now.
On Wednesday, National Security Advisor Mike Flynn appeared in the White House briefing room to inform reporters that the Trump administration is “officially putting Iran on notice.” In a statement, he said that Tuesday’s test of a ballistic missile by Iran represents a violation of United Nations sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Further, Flynn informed the press that the Iran-backed Houthi rebels conducted a deadly suicide attack on a Saudi Arabian frigate off the coast of Yemen. Flynn made no distinction between Iran and their vassals in Sana’a. On Thursday, Pentagon sources told Fox News reporters that they believed the suicide attack on a Saudi ship was originally intended to target American naval assets.
Flynn’s candor is refreshing. It represents a stark departure from the Obama administration’s approach to confronting Iran’s violations of United Nations sanctions or the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (AKA the Iran nuclear accords). The Obama administration’s tepid indignation following Iranian missile tests or Houthi attacks on U.S. ships led observers to wonder whether the White House’s chief priority was to avoid angering the regime in Tehran so as to preserve their compliance with the broader nuclear deal framework. Flynn’s declaration that Iran is now “on notice” is a welcome change of policy.
This shift has not been so warmly received in Moscow. Russia rejected the notion that Iran’s missile test represented a violation of existing United Nations Security Council resolutions. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax news agency that a United States request for emergency UN consultations amounted to needlessly “heating up the situation.”
Flynn’s break with Obama-era precedent is even more heartening considering his expressed desire to seek a rapprochement with Russia. This objective was always going to encounter a road block in the form of Russia’s and America’s intrinsically conflicting national interests. Russia and Iran are allies not just on the battlefields of Syria but in their joint desire to see American influence in their respective regions rolled back. Pursuing confrontation with Iran was always going to result in a reciprocally more hostile relationship with Russia.
The Washington Post editorial board speculated on Wednesday night that the explosion of violence between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists in East Ukraine not only has Moscow’s fingerprints all over it but that the timing of the increased tempo of operations could be aimed, in part, at sending President Trump a message. Frustrated by the Trump administration’s failure to immediately scale back Obama-era sanctions on businesses and individuals within Russia, Vladimir Putin may be looking for ways to communicate his consternation. If that is the case, the message has not been received in the White House.
The conflict between Russia and the United States cannot be wished away. Donald Trump is the third consecutive American president who entered office with dreams of pursuing a grand reconciliation with America’s Cold War-era foe. It is not a matter of will but material concerns that prevent this resolution. George W. Bush and Barack Obama learned that lesson the hard way, and at the expense of lives lost in Russia’s wars in Georgia and Ukraine. Donald Trump is learning that same lesson now.
