Convention season is over, and the reviews are in. Initially, it looked as though both party’s nominating conventions did precisely what they had to do; showcase the nominees, celebrate the party’s history, and compels those partisans still disinclined to support the nominee to “come home.” Polls now suggest that the Democratic nominating convention did just that, but it turns out that the GOP’s convention did not. Whatever semblance of success that gathering appeared to enjoy was only a mirage. Now, heading into the general election season, it seems like Republicans have wasted a prime opportunity to introduce their nominee to the voters. It didn’t have to be this way.
Political onlookers were perhaps inclined to view the Republican convention through the distorted prism of 2016. Broadly, they were judging what they saw based on the curve set by Trump, who, by bending all the rules and norms that govern American politics, has led media and political professionals to suspend their disbelief. Sure, the convention was a raucous affair that was less a celebration of Republican unity than by a celebration of Trump himself. Many presumed, however, that this boilerplate display of Trumpism would likely appeal to those who were inclined to view Trumpism favorably. Those who came to that conclusion failed to appreciate how distasteful most of the nation continues to find Donald Trump and his brand of politics.
According to Gallup, no Republican or Democratic presidential nominating convention has ever failed to create a positive impression in the minds of a plurality of voters since they started asking respondents that question in 1984. No convention, that is, until the 2016 Republican convention. According to Gallup, 51 percent of respondents said the convention actually made them less likely to vote for Trump whereas just 36 percent said they were more likely to vote for him. Even Mitt Romney’s convention, who received no bounce in the polls, created a positive impression in the minds of more voters than it turned off.
Republicans might be tempted to note that Gallup found Hillary Clinton’s convention was not well received either. Just 45 said they were more likely to vote for her after the affair whereas 41 percent said the opposite—the lowest positive score for a Democratic gathering since Gallup has been polling the question. But Clinton’s plus 4-point advantage does not even remotely compare to Trump’s minus 15-point disadvantage. The Democratic nominating convention did what it had to do, while the GOP nominating convention didn’t. The question, then, is why?
The failure of the GOP convention has taken many by surprise because Trump emerged from the process with a substantial bounce in the polls. All things are, however, relative. Both Trump and Clinton polled so poorly heading into the convention that even a modest consolidation of their traditional coalitions would have yielded a strong bump in public opinion surveys. For both Trump and Clinton, that seems to have occurred—but while, as of this writing, Trump’s modest bounce seems to have crested and is even reversing, Clinton’s is only beginning.
The convention’s job isn’t to compel those self-identified partisan Republicans or Democrats to back their party’s nominee; it’s to get those soft partisans who only identify with an ideology or even simply as independents to back one horse over another. In that effort, the Republican National Convention failed miserably.
The convention began with a heavy-handed effort on the part of the Republican National Committee tamped down a rump, doomed-to-fail effort to oppose Trump’s nomination both in the committee voting on the convention’s rules and on the floor of the RNC. What could have been a display of unity and humiliation for a small band of anti-Trump forces turned into a debacle. A decent speech delivered by Melania Trump quickly became marred in the public mind by a three-day contretemps over who had lifted a portion of it that closely resembled Michelle Obama’s 2008 address to the DNC. It was Trump’s team who nurtured a sense of ostracism among anti-Trump forces. They did their best to reinforce their sense of hopelessness by approving a speech from Ted Cruz in which he urged his fellow Republicans to “stand and speak and vote your conscience,” and then reportedly whipped up a chorus of boos from the floor of the convention. The effect was to drown out any interest in Trump’s vice presidential nominee, Mike Pence, who gave a reasonably impressive speech that night in which few were interested. The GOP nominee’s idea was to communicate to the party just how united it was behind Trump; the effect was the complete opposite.
A CBS News survey of the post-convention environment found Hillary Clinton rocketing back into the lead, while self-described conservatives were abandoning Trump. Just 64 percent of conservatives backed the GOP nominee in that poll—well below the number of conservatives who supported George W. Bush, John McCain, or Mitt Romney by this point in the political calendar. A CNN/ORC survey released on Monday confirmed CBS’s findings. Just 71 percent of conservatives backed Trump in that poll while nearly a quarter said they supported Clinton. If conservatives and, thus, right-leaning independent voters were not convinced by the convention, Trump’s bump was always going to be short lived.
The GOP convention was marred by flaws, but it also foreshadowed how the rest of the election season will unfold. A series of unforced errors by Trump, an authoritarian RNC, and a base of voters energized only by resentment and unalloyed adoration for their nominee is not a winning formula. For Republicans, the convention was a bust. There are precious few opportunities left for Trump to make up lost ground.
