General David Petraeus tells USA Today that overall violence in Iraq is declining toward “normal” levels. “If you could reduce these sensational attacks further, I think you are almost approaching a level of normal or latent violence,” Petraeus said on Monday. “The fact that the levels of violence have come down so significantly and stayed down now for some two-and-a-half months … indicates there is a degree of durability.”
According to the story, there have been six U.S. combat deaths so far in July. The lowest monthly number was eight in May 2003, slightly more than a month after the invasion. Daily attacks during the past two months have averaged about 25 to 30, down from about 160 to 170 a little more than a year ago, Petraeus said. In addition, of course, Iraqi civilian deaths have dropped. Iraqi security forces have also been growing in numbers and effectiveness as threats from al-Qaeda and Shiite militias have decreased, Petraeus said. About 70% of Iraq’s combat battalions are leading operations in their areas.
“There is a degree of momentum across the board,” according to Petraeus.
At the same time, Petraeus, along with Ambassador Ryan Crocker, have continually and rightly insisted that progress is fragile and reversible, and that al Qaeda is still lethal. We saw that again on Monday, when suicide attacks in Iraq reportedly killed more than 50 Iraqis. “Al-Qaeda, although significantly degraded … still can strap a suicide vest on an individual and push him or her into a crowd of Iraqis,” Petraeus said. Female suicide vest bombers, who were responsible for Monday’s attacks, are particularly difficult to prevent, especially in that culture. And so Max is right to warn against the wild mood swings of those like Joe Klein, who once believed the Iraq war couldn’t be won and now argues it cannot, at this point, be lost.
He and those who share his views are wrong on both counts.
In fact, the war was winnable even at its low point, just as we can undo the enormous progress we’ve made. We have in place a formula for success in Iraq; now our task as a nation is to demonstrate the necessary resolve to see the war through to a successful outcome – something that is finally within reach.