The most recent Gallup Poll shows 44 percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for “the Republican Party’s candidate” and 39 percent are for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election. What’s notable about this poll are two things: first, the president’s support has now dipped into the 30s, which is not a good place for an incumbent to be; and second, among independents, the president faces a double-digit gap (42 percent v. 32 percent). 

It’s important to point out (as the Gallup analysis does) the results from June in the year prior to the presidential election showed Ronald Reagan trailing Walter Mondale (1983) and Bill Clinton faced a five-point deficit to Bob Dole (1995), yet both Reagan and Clinton easily won the election the following year. So this Gallup Poll is not necessarily predictive.

What it does is assess where things stand at this moment in time – and in this instance, it confirms the president is in a weak position. It also highlights in order for Obama to win re-election, it would help if the economy is as good for him as it was for both Reagan and Clinton. Right now, the odds of that being the case seem infinitesimal. At this juncture, it’s reasonable for the White House to expect Obama’s re-election will be–at best–a difficult endeavor.