The summer trailers are about to end. This week, after several production delays, The Candidate, starring Fred Thompson, will open at a theater near you.
Senator Thompson faces stiff challenges, from a late entry to disappointing fund-raising figures to the fact that he has spent time recently outside the world of politics. The other candidates have been at this for a while now, honing their messages and building organizations. They are a debate-tested and impressive—if far from invincible—group. Thompson has almost no opportunity for a learning curve and very little margin for error. He’s got to be good, very good, right from the start.
At the same time, Senator Thompson has some advantages. At the start of the summer, he was considered one of four top-tier candidates; at the end of the summer, he’s one of three (McCain having dropped like a stone in the sea). Nationally, Thompson is running second to Giuliani and is doing well in some key early states.
The moment is also right for a Thompson entry. The GOP is dispirited. Rudy Giuliani is the only other candidate in the field who can send a jolt of electricity through the Republican base—but Giuliani may also be radioactive to a significant portion of it. Thompson has the potential to energize Republicans without offending them. He also has some impressive skills. At his best, he comes across as serious, informed, reassuring, self-possessed, and manly. Some people dismiss these things as matters of style; in fact, style matters quite a lot in politics. It helped that John Kennedy projected an aura of vigor and youth and that Ronald Reagan was movie-star handsome and a riveting speaker.
The most important thing Fred Thompson has to provide, though, is a compelling rationale for his candidacy. His success depends on convincing conservatives that he is, deep in his bones, one of them—and has been for some time now. There has to be more than a check-the-box quality to his conservatism, which needs to be shown both by his record and by the manner in which he articulates his governing philosophy. He shouldn’t simply insist to voters that he’s a conservative; rather, he should go about the task of speaking as a conservative, with ease and command, explaining why conservatism is the right philosophy for this new century.
Will Fred Thompson be as good as advertised? We’ll see. But here’s what we know: in the current political environment, being a good, solid, acceptable candidate probably won’t be enough. Republican hopes in 2008 rest on a candidate emerging who is in possession of uncommon dexterity and ability, someone with authentic star power. Fred Thompson has the potential; within a few weeks we’ll know whether The Candidate has a plausible chance of becoming The Nominee.
