Emanuele, further evidence that movement to Plan B (further sanctions on Iran) is under review: a letter regarding Iran was sent to the President at the end of last week, signed by Rep. Steny Hoyer (House Majority Leader), Rep. Howard Berman (Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee), Rep. Ike Skelton (Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee) and several other prominent House Democrats (Silvestre Reyes, Henry Waxman, Gary Ackerman, and Robert Wexler). The letter stated they “look forward to the results of your policy review and to the early implementation of your policy of engagement,” but noted that “if we truly mean that Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, urgent action is required today.”

The letter urged that talks with Iran not be deferred until after the Iranian election in June, that suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment program had to occur “within at most a few months of the initiation of discussions,” and that if talks do not produce the desired result, the President should take immediate steps “within your legal authority,” including: (a) sanctioning the Central Bank of Iran and international banks doing business with Iranian banks, (b) denying access to American ports to shipping companies whose ships call on Iranian ports, (c) sanctioning insurance companies insuring vessels or aircraft going to Iran, and (d) sanctioning energy companies investing in Iran’s oil and gas sector.

The history of sanctions is not an encouraging one. They did not work with Iraq (quite the contrary). They are not working with North Korea (ditto). They have been in place for 50 years in Cuba without producing the desired results. Unless accompanied by a credible threat of Plan C, they are not likely to be taken seriously, although the threat or imposition of them may be sufficient to produce talks (Plan A).

Unfortunately, the talks are not likely to succeed before the nuclear program does — and then we will be in the same place with Iran as we currently are with North Korea.