Benny Gantz is in an unenviable position: He does not have enough power to singlehandedly fix what ails the Israeli war effort, but if he’s not careful, he can set back that effort on a whim.

Over the weekend, Gantz gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an ultimatum: Make a plan for postwar Gaza and set it in motion by June 8, or Gantz will bolt the unity government. Two days earlier, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant gave a highly unusual speech in which he, too, challenged Netanyahu over the lack of a concrete plan for who will govern Gaza after Hamas is defeated.

Gallant didn’t give a clear ultimatum or deadline. But his address was the reason for Gantz’s challenge. Gantz is the leader of the opposition and the prohibitive favorite if elections were held today; he can’t be seen to be outhustled politically by the defense minister—especially since Gallant is from the prime minister’s own party.

It’s likely that Gallant’s speech was the reason Gantz released his ultimatum when he did, but Gantz clearly had already prepared his plan, probably in consultation with Washington.

Therein lies the danger. The Biden administration’s motive here is very different from Gantz’s. There’s no reason to think Benny Gantz, the former IDF chief of staff and a man with still-higher political ambitions, wants anything other than Hamas’s defeat. But President Biden and his close aides have made it clear that they do not value the continued pursuit of that objective.

Biden wants to be able to take credit, ultimately, for a mutual-recognition agreement involving the Saudis and Israel. Because the Israelis want that as well, Biden believes he can use it as leverage against Israel’s determination to root out Hamas once and for all. Biden aims to force Israel to choose between the two. He believes he needs Gantz’s help to get Netanyahu out of the driver’s seat, and Gantz believes he needs Biden’s help to finally parlay his poll numbers into a premiership instead of being outmaneuvered by Bibi. Biden and Gantz, then, can offer each other the same thing: to be the leader who signs the deal with Riyadh.

Yet it’s barely been 48 hours since Gantz’s ultimatum and the situation has already changed. The ridiculous ICC request for arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant means that if Gantz bolts the coalition—the only member of the governing troika not to be included in the ICC’s headhunting—it will smack of cynical political abandonment in the face of an external challenge to Israel’s legitimacy.

Perhaps more glaring is that the Biden administration is proving itself a less trustworthy partner by the day. Take, for example, the rather stunning news that Israel has already evacuated, without incident and with little fanfare, nearly a million Palestinians from Rafah. Team Biden had all along said its opposition to a large-scale operation in Rafah was based on the lack of an evacuation plan. This month, Israel presented just such a plan. The Biden administration insisted that the plan “did not change the U.S. administration’s view that moving forward with an operation in Rafah would put too many innocent Palestinian civilians at risk.” The goalposts will keep on shifting.

Gantz cannot bring down the government by leaving the unity coalition; Netanyahu’s original governing coalition would still have a majority. The most likely effect of Gantz leaving the government would be a hyper-politicized environment that would slow the war effort. That doesn’t mean Gantz has an obligation to stay in the government forever, no matter what. But it does mean that letting outside interests determine his moves would be the least-productive way to influence the war. As the mere two days since his ultimatum have already made clear.

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