Members of President Biden’s party say they are worried that his support for Israel against Hamas will cost him the election. But it seems that their real worry is that it won’t.

You may have noticed that pro-Hamas protesters, who have also become pro-Houthi protesters as the Iranian proxy terror group has ramped up its attacks on commercial ships, are quite vocal. They follow Biden around and interrupt his speeches and events by accusing him of complicity in “genocide.” They threaten not to vote for him, even though they are leftist politically and he is the Democratic nominee for president. And it’s true that the squeaky wheel often gets the grease.

But what happens when the squeaky wheel doesn’t poll all that well? And isn’t a reliable voter? And is, if I may put this delicately, the most unlikable wheel ever produced?

Three days ago, holding pro-Houthi and pro-Hamas signs, protesters blocked the street in front of the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum. This sounded like an experiment to me: If you asked one of the popular AI engines—say, ChatGPT—to conjure the least-sympathetic political protest possible, it would look something like these progressive brain titans blocking a Holocaust memorial on behalf of Hitler’s fan club.

So when anonymous Democratic congressmen call Politico to offer hair-on-fire quotes that they won’t put their names to, those quotes are worth examining before joining the panic at the disco. “This is a disaster politically,” said the congressman. “The base is really pissed — and it’s not just the leftists.”

Is it a disaster, though? Certainly it’s not good that the president’s party is divided over a salient issue in an election year. But the Politico piece warns that Democrats risk losing voters to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in November over Gaza.

One problem with that theory: Kennedy is, if anything, more aggressively pro-Israel than Biden is. He’s not timid about it. When progressive tv hosts try to hit him with talking points someone buried in their backyard in the ’60s, he can’t even contain his impatience.

Which brings up an interesting aspect of the 2024 election. Once No Labels settles on its candidate, there are likely to be four general-election nominees with name recognition among voters. None of them will be anti-Israel.

MSNBC host Chris Hayes responded to the “disaster politically” quote above by saying, “Every bit of polling as well as reporting is screaming this in all caps.”

But in fact, that is very clearly not the case at all. Plenty of polling shows a segment of the Democratic Party to be unhappy with Biden’s handling of the war, but those surveys do not suggest that turning on Israel would make sense from an electoral standpoint.

Morning Consult’s tracking poll shows that, on the question of whether respondents support Israel or the Palestinians, the largest gains have been made by a third category: those who say they support both equally. Israel’s numbers have dropped over the course of the current conflict but the Palestinians’ rose only slightly and then dropped again. Israel and “support both equally” have triple the support that the Palestinians receive in the poll.

Additionally, support for the Palestinians has dropped three points among respondents ages 18-34, precisely the demographic supposedly ready to toss Biden overboard over Gaza.

A Harvard-Harris poll two weeks ago showed that 80 percent supported Israel over Hamas in the current conflict and nearly 70 percent believed Israel was trying to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza.

Lastly, many of those who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war believe he ought to support Israel even more strongly. Gallup found about 40 percent thought that what the U.S. has done so far to back Israel in the war is “not enough.”

Now, that doesn’t mean there are no polls with warning signs for Israel. According to an AP poll, 50 percent of American adults think Israel’s counteroffensive in Gaza has “gone too far.” According to YouGov, half of Biden’s 2020 voters think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

But again, the question here is whether Biden specifically is facing a “disaster politically” for his current support for Israel, and the secondary question is whether he will bleed disaffected Democrat votes to RFK Jr. over the issue. Going by current polling, the answer to both is no. That might change, but what we’re seeing right now is that Biden isn’t endangering his reelection by supporting Israel. Instead, members of his party appear to wish the president was in more trouble than he is.

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