If you listen to politicians around the world, the only way we’re going to break the Middle East out of this cycle of violence is with a ceasefire and a two-state solution.
“Ceasefire” went from being a word U.S. politicians cautiously avoided to being the only word in the English language they seem capable of pronouncing with confidence. For its part, “two-state solution” seems to have finally surpassed “on background” to become the most overworked phrase in Washington.
Unfortunately, “ceasefire” and “two-state solution” are—for now—mutually exclusive. In fact, if you’re really jonesing for an Israeli-Palestinian final-status agreement, you might be feeling optimistic for the first time in a year, thanks to the fact that your calls for a ceasefire keep going ignored. As Garth Brooks sang, “some of God’s greatest gifts are unanswered prayers.”
Let’s rewind to the status quo pre-Oct. 7: The Biden administration had finally moved beyond its obsession with punishing Saudi Arabia once the president realized the only possible path to a first-term diplomatic achievement went through Riyadh. Piggybacking on the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords, the contours of a deal were starting to take shape. Saudi Arabia would establish formal relations with Israel, the U.S. would give the Saudis written security guarantees and possibly some other alliance upgrades, and Israel would facilitate the establishment of a Palestinian state.
We all know what happened next: Iran wanted to sabotage the prospects for peace. Its traditional vehicle for doing so, the terror group Hamas, carried out an attack so vicious and barbarous that all negotiations were put on hiatus.
A year later, some good news: Israel smashed Hamas and put Hezbollah on its back. And that is not unrelated to the New York Times’ reporting today that “Saudi Arabia has agreed to deliver $60 million to the Palestinian Authority in six installments, with the first payment expected in the coming days, according to a senior Palestinian Authority official.”
The Saudi announcement came last night, though with few specifics, except that it was intended to relieve the “humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and its surrounding areas.” An infusion of cash to the Palestinian Authority for the purpose of administering the Gaza Strip is a way for Riyadh to send two clear messages at once. To Israel, “finish the job.” To the Palestinians, “we haven’t forgotten you.” The Saudis have already been burned by Hamas, so this cash comes with the assumption that it will be spent by Hamas’s replacement.
The Saudis have been quite active in doing this two-step of late.
In late September, Israeli tourism minister Haim Katz led an official delegation to a tourism expo in Riyadh. “Tourism is a bridge between nations,” Katz said. “Cooperation in the field of tourism has the potential to bring hearts together, and economic progress.”
Simultaneously, a Saudi diplomatic delegation traveled through an Israeli checkpoint into the West Bank, eventually meeting with PA President Mahmoud Abbas. The head of the delegation, Nayef al-Sudayri, has been made a “nonresident” ambassador to the Palestinians. Sudayri presented his credentials to Abbas to show Riyadh’s recognition of the PA as the legitimate national government of the Palestinians while acknowledging Israel’s authority—all while an Israeli minister was in Riyadh.
Yet the most important unspoken commitment in all of this was to a Hamas-free Gaza and, by implication, a clear weakening of Iran’s proxies wherever they could turn Riyadh’s investment into dust. The impending Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon is part of this.
Within the Palestinian body politic, the idea that unending war against Israel is a legitimate and effective strategy has to be buried far below the tunnels of Rafah. So, too, must the dream of Israel’s destruction by a confluence of forces, which is why it is imperative for Hezbollah to be brought low. There can be no alternative to peace with Israel on the menu.
If there is a functioning Palestinian national movement, now is the time for it to put Saudi money where Abbas’s mouth is. All the Palestinians must do is drive down the road paved by Riyadh.
And yet, it’s worth asking: The Saudi money is coming now, long before the PA is actually being asked to do anything, so where will that money go? One answer is “salaries,” but in practice that usually just means “corruption.” The PA has enacted no meaningful reform at all, and it has not ended so-called “pay to slay,” in which the greatest financial incentive Abbas provides is to those who kill Jews (or to their families if the terrorist is in jail or dead). The PA is not cash-poor because some of the donor money has dried up; some of the donor money has dried up because it is pocketed and misused by Abbas and his cronies. The Palestinians actually in need of foreign assistance don’t see the money either way.
Meanwhile, when Abbas steps in front of the world at the UN General Assembly, does he even make a superficial show of statesmanship? Of course not. While his rivals are being neutralized for him, whether it’s Israel crushing Hamas or the Gulf states freezing out would-be challengers to his rule, he wallows in incitement and self-pity with his hand out. He denounced Israel’s “genocide” and its “war of aggression” against Palestinians “in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank and in Jerusalem,” bathing in victimhood by pretending the war on Hamas is a war on him. Even beyond any superficial attempts at expressing solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, he continued to push anti-Semitic talking points about the “Judaizing” of Jerusalem, by which he means Jews living there at all.
The world is trying to drag the Palestinians over the finish line. But ultimately, when the blood and treasure are spent clearing Gaza of Hamas’s control and filling the PA’s coffers, there are certain things the world simply cannot do for Abbas. They can’t make him desire peace, or eschew corruption and violence. They cannot turn him into a worthy leader of a national movement. And one suspects they know in their hearts that in the end, they won’t be able to convince him to do the one thing neither he nor any other Palestinian leader has ever been willing to do: Say yes to a Palestinian state, because it means saying yes to peace.
